Forecasts
Regional Economic Forecasts
The Office of Economic and Revenue Forecasts maintains a quarterly econometric model to produce regular regional economic forecasts, which serve as the starting point to develop revenue forecasts. This regional economic model is based on previous work by Dick Conway and Doug Pedersen at Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc. who published the regional and county level economic forecasts in The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster (PSEF) until June 2017. When they retired, they made their model available to other institutions, to be further developed and extended. The Office of Economic and Financial Analysis (OEFA) at King County, the Seattle Office of Economic and Revenue Forecasts (OERF), and The Center for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) at Western Washington University thus independently continue producing forecasts for the region: OEFA for King County; OERF for King and Snohomish Counties; CEBR for King, Snohomish, Pierce and Kitsap Counties.
The Forecast Office produces four economic forecasts each year, in January, March, July, and October. Each of the quarterly forecast includes three scenarios - baseline, pessimistic, and optimistic - based on economic forecast scenarios for U.S. economy developed by S&P Global Market Inteligence.
Revenue Forecasts
The Office of Economic and Revenue Forecasts produces three revenue forecasts per year, in April, August, and October/November. These forecasts use the actual revenue collection data and outputs of the regional model described above as the main inputs to the specific forecasts of City revenues. The revenue forecasts use econometric modeling and historical data to project how anticipated changes in local economic conditions will affect future City revenues. The three economic forecast scenarios (pessimistic, baseline and optimistic) are used to generate three revenue forecast scenarios of the City's economically dependent revenues. Consistent with the direction provided in the legislation that created the Forecast Office, the presentations of forecasts to the Forecast Council include a recommendation which of the three forecast scenarios should be adopted as the offical forecast.
Summary Forecast Files
Files with summary tables are below, presentations delivered to the Forecast Council can be found on the page with meeting materials.
2024
April Forecast: Economic, Revenue
2023
October Forecast: Economic, Revenue
August Forecast: Economic, Revenue
April Forecast: Economic, Revenue
2022
November Forecast: Economic, Revenue