>>> GOOD AFTERNOON, EVERYONE.
THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING
THE ECONOMIC REVENUE FORECAST
MEETING. THIS IS THE MEETING OF
MARCH 9th, 2023. OUR FIRST
QUARTERLY MEETING. THE TIME IS
2:00 P.M. IT IS MY PLEASURE TO
BE HERE ON THE HALF OF THE
FORECAST COUNSEL WITH MY
COLLEAGUES. SENIOR DEPUTY MAYOR
, HELLO. WE HAVE OUR CITY
BUDGET OFFICE DIRECTOR,
DIRECTOR JULIE. HELLO. WE ALSO
HAVE WITH US, RANDALL SWIFT,
CHIEF OF STAFF SEATTLE CITY
COUNCIL. HER DESIGNEE IS HERE
GOOD TO SEE YOU AS WELL. WE HAV
A NUMBER OF COLLEAGUES AS WELL,
WHO ARE FROM THE CITY TEAM.
THANK YOU ALL FOR JOINING US,
WHETHER YOU ARE WITH THE OFFICE
OR THE CITY BUDGET OFFICE. IT
IS WONDERFUL TO SEE YOU AGAIN.
THIS IS OUR FIRST MEETING OF
2023. A QUARTERLY MEETING.
TODAY WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
HEAR FROM THE OFFICE OF
ECONOMIC REVENUE FORECAST, AS
WELL AS REPRESENTATIVES FROM TH
OFFICE. WE HAVE WITH US ON THE
LINE, LEADERS FROM THE SEATTLE
CITY COUNCIL STAFFING. DEPUTY
DIRECTOR. WE WILL HAVE A CHANC
TO HAVE A DETAILED QUESTION ,
AND GO THROUGH VERY IMPORTANT
ISSUES OF SUBSTANCE ON OUR
AGENDA. IT INCLUDES TWO
OPPONENTS. THE SELECTION OF
CHAIR AND VICE CHAIR FOR THE
REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL. AND
THE APPROVAL FOR THE OFFICE OF
ECONOMIC REVENUE FORECAST. IN
ADDITION TO THESE TWO ISLANDS,
THE REVENUE FORECAST WILL BE
PRESENTING A REPORT ON THE
REVENUE RETURNS. WE WILL BE
HAVING A CHANCE TO SEE HOW THIS
FINAL TALLY ALIGNS WITH OUR MOS
RECENT FORECAST. COLLEAGUES,
BEFORE MOVING ON TO THESE
SUBSTANTIVE ITEMS, LET'S BEGIN
BY FORMALLY ADOPTING THE AGENDA
I JUST OUTLINED AND HAS BEEN
PRESENTED AND PUBLISHED ON THE
OFFICE OF REVENUE FORECAST
WEBSITE AS OF THIS MORNING. A
COPY OF THE AGENDA HAS ALSO BEE
CIRCULATED TO ALL OF THE MEMBER
HERE. FOR MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC
WATCHING VIA THE SEATTLE
CHANNEL, THANKS AGAIN FOR YOUR
BROADCAST OF THESE MEETINGS.
LIVE AND RECORDED AS WELL. ALL
OF THOSE MATERIALS ARE GOING TO
BE INCLUDED ON THE OFFICE OF
REVENUE FORECAST. I MOVED TO
ADOPT THE AGENDA AS PRESENTED
AND CIRCULATED BY THE OFFICE OF
ECONOMIC REVENUE FORECAST. IS
THERE A SECOND?
>> SECOND POINT
>> WONDERFUL. I DID HEAR A
SECOND, I BELIEVE, INITIALLY
FROM THE DIRECTOR. ALSO A
SECOND FROM THE SENIOR DEPUTY
MAYOR. WE WILL CONSIDER THAT
SECOND. ARE THERE ADDITIONAL
COMMENTS? HEARING NONE, THE
AGENDA IS ADOPTED. OKAY. IT IS
GREAT TO SEE ALL OF YOU. THANK
YOU FOR HELPING TO MAKE THE
FIRST YEAR OF THE OFFICE OF
ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST
CONVENING A SUCCESS. I THINK WE
HAVE ONE FULL YEAR PLUS UNDER
OUR BELTS. TODAY IS THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR US TO INITIATE
THE SECOND YEAR OF OUR FORECAST
COUNCIL. FIRST ITEM OF BUSINESS
ON THE AGENDA IS TO MAKE SURE W
SELECT A CHAIR AND VICE CHAIR
FOR THE FORECAST COUNCIL. I HAV
THE PRIVILEGE OF SERVING LAST
YEAR, -- FOR THE ORDINANCE THA
CREATED THE FORECAST COUNCIL,
AND THE BYLAWS WE ADOPTED LAST
YEAR AROUND THIS TIME, WE DO
NEED TO ELECT OR RE-ELECT
SOMEONE TO SERVE IN THE CHAIR
AND VICE CHAIR ROLES. AT THIS
POINT, I WOULD GO AHEAD AND
ENTERTAIN ANY NOMINATIONS FROM
THE FLOOR. FOLKS WHO YOU WOULD
LIKE TO SEE SERVE AS CHAIR. AR
THERE ANY NOMINATIONS FOR CHAIR
>> I MOVED TO NOMINATE TERESA
MOSQUEDA TO SERVE AS CHAIR OF
FORECAST COUNCIL.
>> THANK YOU, VERY MUCH, AND I
APPRECIATE THAT. I WOULD ACCEPT
ON A MISSION. IS THERE A SECOND
>> SECOND POINT
>> THANK YOU SO MUCH. ANY
ADDITIONAL NOMINATIONS? OKAY. I
WOULD BE MY HONOR TO CONTINUE T
CO-CONVENE THIS WITH THE VICE
CHAIR AS WELL. THANK YOU FOR TH
OPPORTUNITY TO BE NOMINATED .
COLLEAGUES, I WOULD BE HAPPY TO
CAN CONTINUE TO SERVE IN THIS
RULE WITH ALL OF YOU. IF THERE
ARE NO ADDITIONAL COMMENTS OR
NOMINATIONS I WILL GO AHEAD AN
CALL THE RULE ON THE NOMINATIO
ON MYSELF TO SERVE AS CHAIR.
>> AYE.
>> DIRECTOR.
>> AYE.
>> I SHOULD DOUBLE CHECK HERE.
I HAD JULIUS FILLING IN, BUT I
THINK I NEED TO PAUSE AND
RECOGNIZE WE HAVE WITH US
ACTING CITY FINANCE DIRECTOR ,
WHO HAD I HAD THE CHANCE TO SE
THIS MORNING IN THE RETIREMENT
SYSTEM. ALSO A BOARD MEMBER
THERE , SERVING ON BEHALF OF TH
FINANCE DEPARTMENT . ACTING
DIRECTOR, YOU DO HAVE A VOTE
HERE. WOULD YOU LIKE TO VOTE?
>> I DO. AYE.
>> EXCELLENT POINT OKAY. I WILL
CALL MYSELF.
>> IT IS UNANIMOUS. THANK YOU S
VERY MUCH FOR YOUR FAITH IN
THIS PROCESS AND FAITH IN ME A
A CHAIR. WITH THAT, WE ARE GOIN
TO MOVE ON TO THE VICE CHAIR.
I'M GOING TO TAKE A MOMENT OF
PERSONAL PRIVILEGE OUT OF THE
GATE, NOMINATE SENIOR DEPUTY T
SERVE AS THE VICE CHAIR OF THE
ECONOMIC REVENUE FORECAST
COUNCIL. IS THERE A SECOND?
>> THINK IT POINT
>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH. ANY
ADDITIONAL COMMENTS OR
NOMINATIONS? OKAY.
>> I THINK THAT'S A SIGN OF
CONFIDENCE. SENIOR DEPUTY
MAYOR, HAROLD, WOULD YOU ACCEPT
THE NOMINATION BEFORE WE VOTE?
>> I WOULD GLADLY ACCEPT. WE HA
A GREAT YEAR TOGETHER LAST YEAR
I KNOW WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER
GOOD ONE THIS YEAR.
>> EXCELLENT POINT WONDERFUL.
LET ME START WITH OUR NEWEST
MEMBER OF THE FORECAST COUNCIL,
ACTING DIRECTOR . WOULD YOU
LIKE TO VOTE?
>> YES, WITH PLEASURE, AYE.
>> SWIFT?
>> AYE.
>> I WILL ABSTAIN.
>> OKAY. THAT WILL MAKE IT
UNANIMOUS. CONGRATULATIONS TO
SENIOR DEPUTY MAYOR AS YOUR
CONTINUED SERVICE. WITH THOSE
FORMALITIES OUT OF THE WAY,
THANKS AGAIN TO THE TEAM AT THE
OFFICE OF REVENUE FORECAST WHO
HELPED TO CREATE THE BYLAWS
WITH US LAST YEAR IN QUARTER
ONE, AND WHO GOT THIS OFFICE
OFF THE GROUND. WE ARE VERY
EXCITED TO BE ABLE TO CONTINUE
TO WORK WITH YOU AND RECEIVE
THIS INFORMATION. JUST BY WAY O
REMINDER, THIS IS INFORMATION
THAT IS SHARED IN REAL TIME WIT
THE EXECUTIVE AND LEGISLATIVE
BRANCH. THAT IS THE INTENT OF
THE REVENUE FORECAST, SO WE
RECEIVE INFORMATION IN REAL TIM
ALONG WITH MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC. THIS IS AN ORDINANCE
ENACTED IN AN EFFORT TO FOLLOW
A TIMELINE AND PROCESS THAT IS
MORE A CAN TO WHAT IS THE
EXPERIENCE OF KING COUNTY AND
OUR STATE. FORGETTING THE NAME
OF IT. WE WANT TO MAKE SURE
BOTH THE LEGISLATIVE AND
EXECUTIVE BRANCH, ALONG WITH
MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC ARE
RECEIVING UPDATES ON THE
REVENUE FORECAST COLLECTIVELY,
AND THAT WE HOLD THESE MEETINGS
QUARTERLY. AS PART OF THE FIRST
MEETING FOR THIS QUARTER, WE
WILL GET INTO THE DETAILS OF TH
LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC AND REVENUE
FORECAST. IT WILL BE THE START
OF A ROBUST CONVERSATION
THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. IN ADVANC
OF THAT DISCUSSION, WE HAVE
APPROVAL OF THE MINUTES FROM
2022 FROM OUR NOVEMBER 2nd
MEETING. A COPY OF THE MINUTES
HAVE BEEN DISTRIBUTED AND
CIRCULATED TO MEMBERS OF THIS
FORECAST COUNCIL. THERE ARE ALS
POSTED ONLINE. I WOULD LIKE TO
MOVE THAT WE APPROVE THE MINUTE
FROM THE NOVEMBER 2nd 2022
MEETING. IS THERE A SECOND?
>> SECOND POINT
>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH
DIRECTOR. ANY ADDITIONAL
COMMENTS OR DISCUSSION? HEARING
NONE, ALL IN FAVOR OF APPROVIN
, PLEASE SAY AYE.
>> AYE POINT
>> AYE.
>> IT IS UNANIMOUS. OKAY,
EXCELLENT. DIRECTOR KNOWABLE ,
THANKS AGAIN FOR YOUR LEADERSHI
AT THE OFFICE OF ECONOMIC
REVENUE FORECAST. THE FIRST ITE
OF OUR AGENDA IS THE
PRESENTATION OF THE 2022
WORKPLAN FOR YOUR OFFICE. FOR
THE ORDINANCE WE HAVE CREATED
FOR THE CITY COUNCIL SIGNED BY
THE MAYOR'S OFFICE, THE FORECAS
OFFICE EACH YEAR -- DIRECTOR
KNOWABLE IS GOING TO GO THROUGH
THE PROPOSED WORK PROGRAM FOR
THE AND REVENUE FORECAST
COUNCIL HERE. AFTER THEY WALK
THROUGH THE PRESENTATION WE WIL
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO DISCUSS
THE WORK PLAN AS DRAFTED, AND
WE WOULD BE HAPPY TO ENTERTAIN
VOTE, IF THE BODY FEELS
COMFORTABLE.
>> THANK YOU AGAIN FOR YOUR
WORK. THROUGHOUT 2022. THE
INAUGURAL YEAR.
>> THANK YOU. MUCH APPRECIATED.
WALK YOU THROUGH THE PROPOSED
WORK GRAHAM. IT INCLUDES A
REVIEW OF OUR ACCOMPLISHMENTS
IN 2022. I THOUGHT THAT WOULD B
USEFUL CONTEXT. WE ARE
ACCOUNTABLE TO YOU. I THOUGHT
IT WOULD BE IMPORTANT TO VIEW
WHAT WE HAD DONE. MY
PERSPECTIVE, AS YOU MENTIONED
EARLIER, VERY SUCCESSFUL YEAR.
WITH THAT, LET ME DIVE IN. I'M
GOING TO SHARE A SCREEN. ONE
MOMENT. YOU CAN ALL SEE THAT,
YES? OKAY. I'M GOING TO DIE
RIGHT IN. JUST MAKE SURE I GET
-- THERE WE GO. MORE FOR THE
BROADER AUDIENCE. JUST REMINDIN
YOU BASIC FUNCTION OF THE
FORECAST COUNCIL IS TO PRODUCE
THE ECONOMIC AND REVENUE
FORECASTS , IN ADDITION WE HAVE
RESPONSIBILITIES. YOU WILL SEE
THAT IN THE SECOND PRESENTATION
TODAY , TO PROVIDE UPDATES ON
THE ACTUAL REVENUES AS THEY ARE
RECEIVED. THEN WE HAVE A SECON
BROADER MISSION WHEN REQUESTED
, EITHER JOINTLY , OR
POTENTIALLY INDIVIDUALLY AS
WELL. AS I WALK THROUGH THE
PROGRAM, I WILL GIVE YOU SOME
EXAMPLES OF THAT POLICY WORK.
JUST REMINDING YOU WHO WE ALL
ARE HERE AT THE TABLE. MYSELF.
DON POINT SENIOR ECONOMIST. SEA
THOMPSON WHO JOINED THE TEAM IN
THE MIDDLE OF LAST YEAR. OUR
ACCOMPLISHMENTS WAS TO GET
OURSELVES FULLY STAFFED. THAT
IS WHO WE ARE, AND WHAT WE DO.
JUST TO REMIND YOU, AS WELL, WE
WORK TO A DEGREE IN
COLLABORATION WITH THE BUDGET
OFFICE. WE ARE RESPONSIBLE IN
TERMS OF DOLLAR AMOUNTS. THERE
ARE OTHER REVENUE STREAMS THAT
ARE GREAT. APARTMENT SPECIFIC
WHERE WE RELY AND COORDINATE
WITH THE CPL, BUDGET OFFICE. YO
WILL SEE THAT AGAIN TODAY AS WE
GO THROUGH THE PRESENTATION. WE
SUMMARIZE 2022 FINAL REVENUES.
DIGGING INTO 2022, JUST FOR A
MOMENT. JUST TO REVIEW WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN WORKING ON. JUST TO
ACKNOWLEDGE. A FAIR AMOUNT OF
WORK GETTING OURSELVES SET UP.
BUREAUCRATIC TECHNOLOGY,
TRANSFERRING SOFTWARE AND DATA.
PICTURE WE HAVE APPROPRIATE
ACCESS. MUCH OF THE DATA WE HAV
ACCESS TO , IN TERMS OF TAX
RECORDS, INCLUDES PROPRIETARY
INFORMATION. CITIES
APPROPRIATELY CAREFUL OF HAVIN
ACCESS, THAT INCLUDES US AS
WELL. ANOTHER BIG THING WE DID
WAS TO WORK WITH CENTRAL STAFF
AND BUDGET OFFICE, MAYOR'S
OFFICE, COUNSEL'S OFFICE. ABOUT
GETTING THE RELATIONSHIPS AND
PROTOCOLS WORKED OUT. WE HAD
ALL, MANY OF US , HAVE WORKED
OVER THE YEARS, BUT -- WE WERE
AN INDEPENDENT OFFICE. WE ARE
PROVIDING INFORMATION TO THE
EXECUTIVE, LEGISLATIVE BRANCHES
AT THE SAME TIME. IN REAL TIME
THERE WERE SOME ISSUES AND
PROTOCOLS SORTED OUT THERE, HO
THAT WAS GOING TO WORK. A NOTE
OF APPRECIATION OF ALL
INVOLVED. AS IMPORTANTLY, A
VERY CLEAR DIALOGUE. WHEN THER
ARE ISSUES OR QUESTIONS, WE KNO
WHO TO TALK TO. THAT HAS BEEN A
SUCCESS. ANOTHER REAL
COMMITMENT THAT WE HAVE, AND A
POINT OF CREATING THE OFFICE WA
ABOUT TRANSPARENCY. PART OF
THAT, WE NEEDED TO MAKE SURE
THE WORK BEING PRODUCED WAS
BEING DISTRIBUTED AND POSTED.
GOT MYSELF TRAINED ON HOW TO
POPULATE A WEBSITE, THE
FORECAST OFFICE AND MATERIALS
YOU ARE SEEING TODAY, AND OTHER
ARE POSTED THERE IN THE
REPOSITORY. WE ONLY PUT THINGS
UP , AT THE MOMENT WE HAVE NOT
TAKEN ANYTHING DOWN. PEOPLE:
CAN ADDRESS THAT AS WELL. SHOUT
OUT TO THE SEATTLE CHANNEL FOR
MAKING THIS POSSIBLE . EVEN IN
THE CONTEXT OF REMOTE AND
HYBRID ALIKE. A TECHNICAL
CHALLENGE.
>> WE DID THE FORECASTING WORK.
WE DELIVERED . I THINK YOU WIL
SEE THE ACCURATE FORECAST ON TH
WHOLE FOR AUGUST AND NOVEMBER.
WE CONTINUED TO REFINED
FORECASTING MODELS IN A VARIET
OF WAYS. TALK MORE ABOUT THAT
AS WELL. WE HAVE ALSO OPENED U
A DIALOGUE FOR COLLEAGUES. OUR
OFFICE IS SOME WAY WITH KING
COUNTY. ACTUALLY THEY WERE DOIN
A PRESENTATION THIS MORNING. W
ARE LISTENING IN. THEY MENTIONE
THIS TOUCHING COLLABORATION AS
WELL. I HAD PRODUCED THE SLIDE
ALONG TIME AGO. WE SHARED IT IS
SOMETHING MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL T
US. WE LEARN FROM THEM AND THE
FROM US. A GRADUATE STUDENT
COLLEAGUE OF MINE, CODIRECTOR O
ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH
IN WESTERN WASHINGTON
UNIVERSITY. USING A VERY
COMFORTABLE MODEL, DEVELOPED A
FORECAST AND REGIONS IN THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. THAT
HAS BEEN A USEFUL COLLABORATION
AS WELL. WE HAD SOME CONTACT
AROUND SOME EMPLOYMENT ISSUES
AS WELL. ONE OF THE THINGS WE
ARE WORKING HARD ON, AND YOU
WILL SEE CONTINUES TO BE IN THE
WORK PROGRAM THIS YEAR,
ESTABLISHING DATA SHARING
AGREEMENT WITH EMPLOYMENT
SECURITIES. EMPLOYMENT
SECURITIES, STATE OFFICE. THEY
HAVE DETAILED INFORMATION ON
PAYROLL AND WAGES AT THE FIRM
AND INDIVIDUAL LEVEL. FOR SOME
OF OUR FORECASTING, PARTICULARL
FOR THE JUMPSTART BARREL TAX,
GREAT INFORMATION TO HAVE
ACCESS. IT IS, HOWEVER, HIGHLY
SENSITIVE. EXTREMELY
PROPRIETARY. IT'S GOING TO TAK
SOME TIME. WORKING WITH SEATTL
I.T. AND FOLKS WITH THE STATE.
WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE
WORKING ON FINALIZING THAT
ARRANGEMENT. THEN WE ALSO
WORKED OUT A PATTERN OF REGULA
REPORTING . THE QUARTERLY
REPORTS. THIS IS ALL REGULAR
UPDATES WE PROVIDE. WE'VE ALSO
SUPPORTED FOLKS ON THE POLICY
SIDE. WE DID OUR OWN FORECAST
ACCURACY, SOMETHING AT THE LAS
MEETING THAT HAS HELPED US
FOCUS OUR WORK FOR THIS YEAR.
THE BEST PLACE TO SPEND OUR
TIME, IF YOU WILL. WE HELPED O
REVENUE ESTIMATION WORK. WE MAD
OURSELVES AVAILABLE FOR THE
WORK GROUP. A VARIETY OF ISSUE
THERE, AS WELL. MOVING FORWARD
IN 2023. YOU WILL SEE THERE AR
GOING TO BE TWO SLIDES HERE.
MORE BROAD ELEMENTS TO THE WORK
PROGRAM. ONE IS THE FORECAST
ITSELF. AS WE DESCRIBED
REPEATEDLY , TWO STEP PROCESS.
ECONOMIC FORECAST, AND THEN WE
DO THE REVENUE FORECAST. WHAT
YOU SEE HERE ON THE TABLE IS A
SUMMARY OF A CALENDAR WE HAVE
SET UP FOR THOSE. WE ACTUALLY
SCHEDULED APRIL AND AUGUST
MEETINGS. THE TWO REVENUE
FORECASTS. WE CONTINUE TO
COORDINATE WITH CENTRAL STAFF
AND COUNCILMEMBERS OFFICE.
THE COORDINATION OF THE LAST
UPDATE NEEDS TO HAPPEN WITH
THAT. THE COUNCIL WOULD
SCHEDULE . THE BASIC IDEA IS A
SLIGHT DIFFERENCE THE MUSTER. W
WILL DELIVER THAT FORECAST
EARLIER THAN WE HAVE. IN THE
PAST WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT IT
BEING THE NOVEMBER FORECAST.
THEY REFLECT THE MIDDLE OF
OCTOBER. THE INTENT IS TO
PROVIDE COUNSEL WITH AN UPDATE
IN A MORE TIMELY WAY. TO BETTER
PERFORM THE BUDGET DECISIONS
THE COUNCIL IS GOING TO MAKE,
AND GIVE YOU ALL INFORMATION ,
SO YOU CAN REALLY PROCESS
THROUGH AND MAKE DECISIONS THAT
ARE INFORMED OF WHAT THE
PICTURE IS GOING TO BE. WE WILL
GET THOSE DATES IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF MONTHS AND GET THEM O
THE CALENDAR. IN TERMS OF
REGULAR REPORTS, QUARTERLY
REVENUE REPORTS. ONE PRESENTED
TODAY. BY DEFINITION, THE
FOURTH QUARTER REPORT FOR 2022.
THERE'S ALSO INTERNAL REPORTS
AND EMAILS WE SENT OUT. WE GET
MONTHLY UPDATE FROM THE NATIONA
FORECAST FIRM, IHS MARKET. WE
PROVIDE SUMMARY FOR THAT. OF
REGULAR THING. AN UPDATE ON
WHERE THINGS ARE HEADED . WE
WILL CONTINUE THAT. WE ALSO GET
MONTHLY UPDATES FROM THE
DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE . THE CIT
SALES TAX REVENUES. THEY COME
EVERY MONTH. REFLECTING
ACTIVITY THAT HAPPENED SEVEN
WEEKS PRIOR. IN SOME WAYS, THE
MOST TIMELY INFORMATION WE HAVE
ABOUT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.
SOMETHING I ALWAYS WOULD
MONITOR. AND CONTINUE TO DO SO
HERE. WE DISTRIBUTE THAT WIDELY
SO FOLKS CAN GET THAT SAME
INFORMATION. WE WILL CONTINUE
THOSE TASKS. ADVANCED TO FAR
THERE. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT
PART OF WHAT WE ARE DOING. I
MENTIONED FINALIZING WITH ESD .
ONCE THAT IS NAILED DOWN, WE
ARE GOING TO WORK OUT OF THAT A
WELL. THAT WOULD PROVIDE
CRITICAL INFORMATION FOR
MODELING AND JUMPSTART PAYROLL
TAX. WE ARE WORKING ON THAT NOW
WE NOW HAVE FINAL RESULTS FOR
2022. LOOKING TO SEE WHAT
INFORMATION WE CAN USE AS A
LEVERAGE TO HELP FORECAST THAT
POINT WE WILL TALK A LITTLE BIT
ABOUT THAT AND THOSE RESULTS.
THE REAL ESTATE EXCISE TAX , WE
WILL SEE A LOT OF DEVELOPMENTS
THERE. IN PARTICULAR, A FALLOF
OF REVENUES. INTEREST RATES
HAVE BEEN RISING. WE WANT TO
TRY TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
THAT. SEE IF WE CAN FORECAST
WHAT IS GOING TO BE HAPPENING
THERE. AGAIN WE ARE EXPECTING A
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE .
>> ALSO, NEW CONSTRUCTION. AN
AREA WHERE I THINK THERE'S AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SEAN AND I HAVE
BEEN WORKING THE FIRST COUPLE O
MONTHS OF THE YEAR HERE. SOME
WORK RELATED TO ASSESS VALUE I
OUR FORECAST. THAT AGAIN
UNDERLIES PROPERTY TAX REVENUE.
THIS AGAIN IS POTENTIALLY JUST
AN AREA RELATED TO SOME OF THE
IMPACTS OF COVID. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THERE TO BE REDUCTION IN
THE ASSESSED VALUE . WE MAY COM
BACK LATER IN THE YEAR FOR SOM
POTENTIAL INSIGHTS ON HOW THAT
MIGHT PLAY OUT.
>> WE WILL CONTINUE OUR POLICY
AND RESEARCH WORK. ONE OF THE
THINGS WE DO IS COORDINATE WITH
THE DIRECTOR AROUND CITY DEBT
THE SALE OF BONDS. PART OF
THAT PROCESS , WE HAVE
PARTICIPATED IN THE RATING
AGENCIES. ESSENTIALLY WE ARE
THE CITY EXPERTS ON REVENUES.
WANT TO KNOW EVERYTHING ABOUT
CITY REVENUES. THAT'S AN
IMPORTANT FUNCTION I AM NOT
SURE I FULLY ANTICIPATED THE
LEVEL OF INVOLVEMENT IN THAT.
HAPPY TO SUPPORT IT. ACTUALLY
BUNCH OF THE INFORMATION WE ARE
GOING TO PRESENT TO YOU TODAY,
HAVE INTEGRATED INTEGRATED SOM
MATERIALS FOR THAT. AGAIN, WE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
STABILIZATION WORKGROUP AS
NECESSARY. WE HAVE ALSO BEEN
WORKING WITH OTHER PARTS OF THE
DIRECTORS TEAM, SUPPORTING
THEIR ANALYSIS. STATE LEGISLATO
PROPOSALS AND OTHER TAX POLICY
ISSUES. AGAIN WE HAVE ACCESS TO
A GOOD DEAL OF DATA. THAT HAS
BEEN A HELPFUL PARTNERSHIP IN
BOTH DIRECTIONS. JUST FOR YOUR
INFORMATION, I'M GOING TO
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS AN ADVISOR
RULE. PROJECT RELATED TO
MEMORIAL STADIUM REDEVELOPMENT.
THIS IS NOT TAKE VERY MUCH OF M
TIME. JUST LEVERAGING SOME PAST
EXPERIENCE , TO THE BENEFIT OF
THE CITY. ULTIMATELY THERE MIGH
BE SOME REVENUE THERE. WE SHALL
SEE. WE HAVE SOME CAPACITY AS
WELL. OVER THE COURSE OF LAST
YEAR , AND I ANTICIPATE OVER TH
COURSE OF THIS YEAR, INDIVIDUAL
ISSUES MIGHT COME UP. JUST TO
MENTION ONE THAT IS HAPPENED
THIS YEAR. PROVIDED SOME
CONSULTING ASSISTANCE, IF YOU
WILL , TO CENTRAL STAFF.
RELATING SOME WORK THEY WERE
DOING ON PROPERTY TAX.
ESTIMATING THE PROPERTY TAX
BURDEN.
>> TRADITIONALLY, THE CITY HAD
QUOTED NUMBERS AND GIVEN THESE
EXAMPLES BASED ON HOMEOWNERSHIP
WE TRY TO WORK UP THE IMPLIED
PROPERTY TAX BURDEN FOR A
TYPICAL RENTER. GIVEN MORE THAN
HALF OF THE CITY'S RENT, THAT'S
A GOOD ANALYSIS TO HAVE ADDED.
THOSE FOUR ELEMENTS, THE
PREVIOUS SLIDE. THE FORECAST,
REGULAR REPORTS . ENHANCING THE
FORECAST . POLICY ANALYSIS ,
THIS IS THE PROPOSED WORK
PROGRAM. FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION
>> HAPPY TO ANSWER ANY QUESTION
FOR ANY DISCUSSION YOU MIGHT
WANT TO HAVE.
>> EXCELLENT. COUNCIL MEMBER
SWIFT.
>> I HAVE A QUESTION OF MOVING
THE DATE. WHAT WAS THE NOVEMBE
MEETING, THE FORECAST. DOES THA
RUN THE RISK OF DO WE LOSE ANY
INFORMATION DURING THAT PERIOD
NEW CONSTRUCTION NUMBERS COME
OUT IN THE FALL AT SOME POINT.
IS THERE A CHANCE WE ARE GOING
TO MISS SOME NUMBERS?
>> THERE WAS ALWAYS A TRADE-OFF
WE WOULD WAIT UNTIL THE DAY
BEFORE TO HAVE ALL THE
INFORMATION BUT AVAILABLE. THAT
WOULD BE USEFUL FOR YOU ALL. W
HAVE LOOKED AT THE CALENDAR.
COORDINATED WITH CENTRAL STAFF.
WE THINK THAT IS NOT AN
UNREASONABLE BALANCE. IT WOULD
MAKE A LOT OF SENSE. HAVING THE
COUNCIL , SOME PERSONAL
HISTORY, WORKING THROUGH THE
BUDGET PROCESS IN PREVIOUS
YEARS, HAVING THAT INFORMATION
SOONER SO IT CAN HELP FRAME,
REALLY WHAT IS THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY, RIGHT. ONE DOESN'T
KNOW WHAT THE PICTURE IS. ONE
DOESN'T KNOW IF IT'S AN
OPPORTUNITY TO THINK ABOUT
EXPANDING SERVICES, OR SITUATIO
WE MAY HAVE TO GIVE OUT PAIRING
THEM BACK. EITHER ONE OF THOSE
THINGS , IDEALLY YOU WOULD HAVE
MORE TIME FOR DELIBERATIONS.
WHEN I SAY MORE TIME, WE ARE NO
TALKING ABOUT A LOT. WE DELIVER
A FORECAST IN THE THIRD WEEK O
OCTOBER. COUNSEL MAKES DECISION
BY THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER.
THAT'S A VERY SHORT WINDOW.
PREVIOUSLY WE WERE DELIVERING
THAT INFORMATION IN THE FIRST
WEEK OF NOVEMBER, AND PROVIDING
BARELY A WEEK I SEE THE
ADVANTAGE OF HAVING MORE
INFORMATION SOONER. IT IS PART
OF THE JOB . IF THERE IS
SOMETHING DRAMATIC THAT HAPPENS
AFTER WE DELIVER A FORECAST, WE
ARE NOT GOING TO SIT ON OUR
HANDS OR LET OUR WHEELS SPIN.
AND MAKE SURE THE SITUATION HAS
CHANGED AGAIN AND FOLKS NEED T
KNOW THAT POINT AND GENERALLY
MAKE SENSE. BUT CLEARLY AN
IMPORTANT QUESTION.
>> THANK YOU.
>> DEPUTY DIRECTOR , DID YOU
HAVE SOMETHING YOU WANTED TO
ADD?
>> I RAISED MY HAND, PARDON ME
INSTEAD OF UN-MUTING MYSELF. I
DON'T KNOW HOW TO TAKE IT DOWN.
>> I WAS JUST GOING TO SAY
SOMETHING SIMILAR TO WHAT THE
DIRECTOR ADDED AT THE END. THER
IS A MATERIAL CHANGE IN ACTUAL
INFORMATION , OR ACTUALS COMING
IN, OR FORECAST INFORMATION THA
THE FORECAST OFFICE HAS , THE
CITY FINANCE HAS, CITY BUDGET
OFFICE, THE COUNCIL CAN STILL
CONSIDER THAT EVEN IF IT COMES
TO US AFTER THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. AS DIRECTOR NOBLE
MENTIONED, THEY WILL NOT SIT ON
THEIR HANDS. THEY WILL BE
PROACTIVE LETTING THE COUNCIL
KNOW .
>> THANK YOU. ANY ADDITIONAL
QUESTIONS?
>> OKAY. FROM CENTRAL STAFF'S
PERSPECTIVE, I AM WONDERING IF
YOU CAN SHARE A LITTLE BIT ABOU
HOW YOU THINK THIS WILL FOLD
INTO THE CITY COUNCIL
DELIBERATIONS AT THAT POINT, AS
WELL AS AFTER WHEN THE MAYOR
TRANSFERS THEIR BUDGET. WE ALL
-- WAIT WITH BAITED BREATH FOR
THE NOVEMBER FORECAST USUALLY.
FROM YOUR PERSPECTIVE, CAN YOU
OPINE A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE
PROS OR CONS ON THAT PIPELINE?
>> SURE, HAPPY TO. I WILL
ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THIS CHANGE IS
REALLY COMING FROM A
RECOMMENDATION FROM CENTRAL
STAFF. A PARTNERSHIP TO TRY TO
BALANCE THE COUNCILS PROCESS I
A VERY QUICK TURNAROUND TIME IN
WHICH YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND TH
MAYOR'S PROPOSED BUDGET . THE
INFORMATION YOU NEED TO BALANCE
WITH ANY AMENDMENTS TO ADDRESS
COUNCILMEMBER PRIORITIES THAT
MAY NOT BE REFLECTED IN THE
INITIAL PROPOSAL. TO AMEND THE
BUDGET CAN BE INFORMED BY THE
CONTEXT YOU HAVE TO BALANCE TO,
VERSUS PROPOSING AMENDMENTS ,
DELIBERATING ON THOSE
AMENDMENTS, AND THEN GETTING
ADDITIONAL NEW INFORMATION THAT
MIGHT UPEND WHAT MIGHT BE
ACHIEVED IN THE FINAL BUDGET.
WE ARE HOPING THIS WILL PROVIDE
A LITTLE BIT MORE TIME TO DIGES
ANY FORECAST UPDATES, AND HAVE
BUDGET AMENDMENT INFORMED BY
THAT CONTEXT.
>> GREAT. ARE THERE ANY
ADDITIONAL COMMENTS ON THE WOR
PLAN AS PRESENTED? ANY COMMENT
FROM THE OFFICE?
>> NO.
>> OKAY. COLLEAGUES, THANKS FO
YOUR QUESTIONS. GREAT QUESTIONS
. THANK YOU FOR BRINGING THAT
UP. FOR THE CONTEXT AS WELL. TH
DIRECTOR -- WE DO HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO CONSIDER THE 202
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC AND REVENUE
FORECAST WORK PROGRAM , AS
PRESENTED BY DIRECTOR NOBLE. I
THERE A MOTION TO ADOPT THE
2023 WORK PLAN?
>> MOTION TO ADOPT.
>> THANK YOU SO MUCH SENIOR
DEPUTY MAYOR HARRELL.
>> SECOND.
>> I THINK I HEARD DIRECTOR
FIRST. IT HAS BEEN MOVED AND
SECONDED. ARE THERE ANY
ADDITIONAL COMMENTS BEFORE WE
VOTE? HEARING NO ADDITIONAL
COMMENTS, ALL IN FAVOR OF
ADOPTING THE WORK PLAN FOR
2023, PLEASE SAY AYE POINT
>> AYE POINT
>> AYE PICS
>> ANY OPPOSED? ANY EXTENSIONS
OKAY. IT'S UNANIMOUS. THE
MOTION CARRIES. THE WORK PLAN I
ADOPTED. PLEASE THANK YOUR
ENTIRE TEAM, AND HER OFFICE,
DIRECTOR NOBLE, AND THE WORK
THAT WENT INTO THAT. THAT MOVES
US TO THE 2022 YEAR AND REVENUE
RESULTS. AS DIRECTOR NOBLE
DESCRIBED IN THE BEGINNING OF
THIS MEETING, THE WORK PLAN IS
ONE OPPORTUNITY FOR US TO LOOK
BACK ON HOW THINGS HAVE GONE AN
COMPARE MOVING FORWARD. ONE
SPECIFIC STEP WE TALKED ABOUT
IN THE IMPLEMENTATION,
THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF LAST
YEAR, WAS TO MAKE SURE THE
OFFICE, THE REVENUE OFFICE,
PROVIDES REPORTS ON ACTUAL
REVENUE ON THE CLOSE OF EACH
YEAR. THIS BEING OUR FIRST
MEETING OF 2023. IT'S OUR
OPPORTUNITY TO LOOK BACK AT
2022. GET THOSE ACTUALS IN HAND
AND FOR THE MEMBERS OF THE
COMMUNITY AS WELL. THE FOURTH
QUARTER REPORT OF 2022, WHICH
WILL BE PRESENTED TODAY,
PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE
FINAL YEAR END SUMMARY OF HOW
THE CITY'S REVENUE PERFORMED
THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF LAST
YEAR. AND SEE HOW THE REAL
PERFORMANCE TRACK TO THE
FORECASTED PERFORMANCE. THIS I
ESSENTIAL INFORMATION , BECAUSE
THE CITY BALANCES OUR BUDGET
AGAINST THE REVENUE FORECAST, A
WE DESCRIBED, THE MAYOR'S OFFIC
LOOKS AT THE REVENUE FORECAST
TO PERFORM THEIR PROPOSED
BUDGET, IN SEPTEMBER, AND
SEATTLE CITY COUNCIL FINALIZES
ITS BUDGET TOWARDS THE END OF
NOVEMBER , AND WE ALL RELY ON
THESE FORECAST TO BUILD OUR
CALENDAR YEAR BUDGETS GOING
FORWARD. IT IS REALLY IMPORTANT
AS WELL AS WE MOVE BACK INTO
BIANNUAL BUDGETING . ENDORSE,
AND WHAT IS THE OTHER WORD,
ALLIE? RECOMMENDED.
>> I'M SORRY, I MISSED THE
QUESTION PICS
>> THAT'S OKAY.
>> WE DON'T HAVE A TRUE BY
ANIMAL BIANNUAL BUDGET PICS
>> ADOPTED PICS
>> ADOPTED FOR 2023, AND
ENDORSED FOR 2024. FOR US TO
ENSURE THE 2024 ENDORSED BUDGE
IS BALANCED, THESE PROCESSES AR
GOING TO BE REALLY IMPORTANT AS
WE SEE HOW THE 2022 PLATO, HOW
2023 . ALL VERY HOPEFUL. IT'S
NOT JUST REARVIEW MAYOR EXERCIS
AT THIS POINT. IT DOES HELP US
HAVE A BETTER SENSE OF WHAT'S
COMING IN THE FUTURE.
>> I'M GOING TO GO AHEAD AND
TURN IT OVER TO DIRECTOR NOBLE.
I THINK YOU WILL HEAR SOME OF
OUR MOST SIGNIFICANT REVENUE
SOURCES. MODESTLY OVER
PERFORMED RELATIVE TO FORECAST,
WHICH IS GREAT. SOME HAVE
FALLEN SHORT, FROM WHAT I CAN
TELL FROM THE INITIAL MATERIAL
POSTED THIS MORNING. AFTER THE
COURSE OF THIS PRESENTATION, WE
WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TALK ABOU
NEXT STEPS WITH THE EXECUTIVE,
THE LEGISLATIVE BRANCH, AND THE
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC REVENUE
FORECAST. IT WILL BE AN
INTERACTIVE DISCUSSION AT THE
END OF THIS PRESENTATION BEFOR
WE CONCLUDE POINT
>> DIRECTOR NOBLE, THAT TEED US
UP WELL FOR MAYBE SOME GOOD
NEWS. SOME POTENTIAL CONCERNIN
THIS POINT WE WILL HAVE CHANCE
TO TALK ABOUT IT AT THE FORECAS
COUNCIL AFTER WE GET YOUR FULL
PRESENTATION.
>> THANK YOU.
>> THERE WAS A VERY GOOD
INTRODUCTION TO A SOMEWHAT
NUANCED REPORT.
>> BEFORE I DIVE IN, JUST WANT
TO SAY ONE THING ABOUT THE
TIMING OF THE REPORT. IN
GENERAL, WE PRODUCE THIS
QUARTERLY REPORT RIGHT AFTER TH
END OF THE QUARTER. USUALLY
WITHIN TWO WEEKS , CLOSE TO THE
QUARTER. NOTABLE EXCEPTION IS
FOURTH QUARTER YEAR-END REPORT
THE CITY FINANCES, WE FOCUS T
TAX OBLIGATIONS . THE TAXPAYERS
THEN HAVE , DEPENDING ON THE
REVENUE SOURCE, AS MUCH AS A
MONTH MORE IN ORDER -- WE DON'
ACTUALLY GET ALL THE MONEY UNTI
JANUARY. AND MIDDLE OF
FEBRUARY. IN FACT, SALES TAX
REVENUE FOR DECEMBER, WHICH THE
STATE ? AND DISTRIBUTES, WE
DON'T SEE THAT UNTIL THE THIRD
WEEK OF FEBRUARY. IT IS REALLY
NOT UNTIL NOW WE ARE ABLE TO
PRODUCE THIS LAST REPORT.
REVENUES WERE FINALIZED LAST
FRIDAY. HERE ON THURSDAY. WITH
THAT, I'M GOING TO DIVE IN.
PUTTING UP ANOTHER PRESENTATION
SORRY. THAT'S THE WRONG
PRESENTATION.
>> ONE MOMENT. LET ME TRY THIS
AGAIN. THERE WE GO. THAT'S A
LITTLE BETTER. I AM STILL
GETTING ONE. OH, THERE WE GO.
EXCELLENT.
>> GREAT, THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
>> PROBABLY MORE NERVOUS THAN
YOU ALL FOR A COUPLE OF SECONDS
THERE. WE ARE GOOD TO GO. LET
ME TALK FOR A MINUTE ABOUT THE
STRUCTURE OF THE PRESENTATION.
WE ARE GOING TO START WITH THE
GENERAL FUND. AND WALK THROUGH
THAT . AS YOU WILL SEE, ON THAT
SIDE OF THINGS LOOK PRETTY GOOD
SOME VARIATION FROM THE
FORECAST . TO THE EXTENT IT
APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT, MOR
OF A TECHNICAL DISCREPANCY
ISSUE. WE WILL DESCRIBE THAT
POINT WE WILL THEN MOVE ON TO
TALK ABOUT THE NON-GENERAL FUND
REVENUE. PARTICULRLY ONES THAT
ARE DEDICATED FUNDING STREAMS.
THE MESSAGES GET A LITTLE MORE
NUANCED, MORE CLOUDY. I DIDN'T
WANT TO BURY THE LEAD. ON THE
GENERAL FUND SIDE THINGS WILL
LOOK GOOD. AS WE MOVE ON, THERE
ARE SOME CHALLENGES THERE. OPEN
JUMPSTART, AND IN REACH. I WIL
GIVE YOU THOSE DETAILS. IN THE
END, I'M GOING TO TURN THIS OVE
AND HE WILL GIVE YOU ONE UPDATE
ON HOW THEY HAVE INVOLVED SINC
LAST NOVEMBER. GIVE YOU AN IDEA
OF WHY WE SAW THE RESULTS WE
DID LATE IN THE YEAR. ALSO A
LITTLE BIT . DIVING IN , THIS
FIRST CHART IS TO GIVE YOU A
SENSE OF THE GENERAL FUND.
SPECIFICALLY THE PERFORMANCE
RELATIVE TO THE FORECAST, BUT
ALSO SOME HISTORY. 2018 THROUG
2022. COMPARING THE ACTUALS .
THAT COLOR SCHEME, JUST FOR
CONSISTENCY, YOU WILL SEE
THROUGHOUT. ACTUAL REVENUES FOR
2022 WOULD BE IN A DARKER BLUE,
SHADE OF BLUE, THE FORECAST AND
THE LIGHTER SHADE OF BLUE, A
LIGHTER COLOR. JUST OVERALL, -
THE LARGER SHARE OF THAT DUE T
THE REVENUES FROM THE NEWLY
ESTABLISHED JUMPSTART PAYROLL
TAX. 2022. YOU WILL SEE A
SLIGHT DECLINE IN REVENUES.
THAT'S ALSO DECEPTIVE, THOUGH.
REVENUES WERE INCLUDED IN THIS
TOTAL. 2022 JUMPSTART REVENUES
WERE NOT . THEY WERE DEPOSITED
INTO A SEPARATE FUND. THAT BEIN
SAID, THOUGH, 2022 REVENUES
DID COUNT ON SIGNIFICANCE REPOR
FROM THE JUMPSTART FUND, THE
JUMPSTART REVENUES. THE
TRANSFER REVENUES ARE SHOWN IN
2022. WANTS PICTURE. I DID WAN
TO GIVE THE CONTEXT. AS YOU CAN
SEE, RELATIVE TO THE FORECAST,
WE HAVE FALLEN SHORT . AS I MOV
INTO THE NEXT SLIDE, WE WILL
EXPLAIN MOST HAS TO DO WITH A
COUPLE OF TECHNICAL ISSUES I
DESCRIBED. GRANT REVENUES.
ANOTHER HAVING TO DO WITH FUND
TRANSFERS. WE BEAT THE
FORECAST, SLIGHTLY. THESE ARE
THE ONES WE SPEND A LOT OF TIME
ON. WE DO BECAUSE COLLECTIELY
THAT'S THE BILLION PLUS DOLLAR
OF REVENUE. YOU WILL SEE THE
FORECASTS ARE VERY ACCURATE. W
HAD ABOUT TWO THIRDS OF THE
YEARS DATA. NOT AT THAT POINT.
LIBERTY TAX , ESSENTIALLY ON
FORECAST. LESS THAN $200,000.
370 MILLION. RETAIL SALES, JUS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FORECAST. 1.5
MILLION. ABOUT A HALF A PERCENT
B ENDO, 5 MILLION. A DIFFERENC
OF 1 1/2%. AGAIN, FORECAST WE
ARE QUITE ACCURATE. I DID NOT
WANT TO CLUTTER THE PICTURES, S
I DID NOT INCLUDE 2021 RESULTS
FROM THESE REVENUE STREAMS.
LOOKING AT TEXT, JUST TO MENTIO
PROPERTY TAX. OF 2% FROM THE
PREVIOUS YEAR. PER STATE LAW,
WE ARE ALLOWED TO COLLECT 1%.
THE ADDITIONAL 1.2% WE DID
COLLECT IS THE EFFECTIVE NEW
CONSTRUCTION , AND HIGHLIGHTS
HOW NEW CONSTRUCTION IS IN
THOSE REVENUES.
>> RETAIL SALES. QUITE ROBUST
ON THE FACE OF IT. MORE THAN 1
1/2%. IF YOU CONSIDER HOW
INFLATION WAS RUNNING AT CLOSE
TO NINE PERCENT OR ABOVE. THE
REAL GROWTH HERE WAS QUITE
MODEST. BNO, GROWTH OF 5%.
CONTEXT OF INFLATION, THAT'S NO
US STRONG. THOSE ARE THE
BIGGEST REVENUE STREAMS. THEY
ARE NOT THE WHOLE STORY. NEXT
SLIDE DIGGS AND . I WILL WALK
THROUGH THE STRUCTURE HERE. THE
MOST NUMBERS I WILL PUT UP ON
ANYONE'S SLIDE, I PROMISE. IT
DOES GIVE YOU THE DETAIL HERE.
ORGANIZED HERE . THE REVENUE
SOURCES ON THE LEFT. FIRST
COLUMN IS THE ACTUAL RESULTS
FOR 2022. THE NEXT COLUMN IS
FORECAST. NEXT COLUMN IS THE
VARIANCE. POSITIVE MEANS THE
REVENUE WAS ABOVE FORECAST.
OBVIOUSLY BELOW. ON THE RIGHT,
THE FINAL IS THE PERCENT OF THE
FORECAST. IF IT'S ABOVE 100%,
AGAIN OVER COLLECTION RELATIVE
TO FORECAST OR OVER
PERFORMANCE. WITH UNDER 100%,
RESULTS ARE LESS THAN THE
FORECAST. THAT GIVES YOU A SENS
OF HOW FAR ABOVE OR BELOW. WE
HAVE COVERED THE FIRST THREE ON
THE PREVIOUS SLIDE. I AM JUST
GOING TO WALK DOWN HERE, TALKIN
ABOUT THE VARIANCES IN
PARTICULAR, OFFERING YOU SOME
EXPLANATION. I DIDN'T MEAN TO D
THAT. PRIVATE UTILITIES, WE AR
DOWN BY ABOUT 1 MILLION ON TH
FORECAST. NOTHING. SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN SOME OF THOSE
REVENUES. SOME OF THEM LIKELY
TO DO WITH TIMING. NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT THERE. SOME NOISE,
IF YOU WILL. PUBLIC UTILITY
TAXES. UP BY ALMOST 8 1/2
MILLION. THAT IS GOOD FROM A
REVENUE SIDE. GOOD FROM A
FORECAST ACCURATE SIDE. THE
EXPLANATION HERE IS COMPELLING
IF YOU WILL. UNDERSTANDING WHY
WE MISSED THIS ONE. MORE THAN
6 MILLION OF THAT DIFFERENCE
COMES FROM THE DELIGHT. IT IS
PARTICULARLY USED TO SPIKE IN
COLD TEMPERATURES . IN THE
WEATHER IN NOVEMBER AND
DECEMBER. WE GOT ROUGH COLD
SNAPS FOR NOVEMBER AND
DECEMBER. I SUSPECT THIS WAS I
SOME WAYS AMPLIFIED BY THE
CURRENT HYBRID WORK FROM HOME
ARRANGEMENTS. WE HAD A LOT MORE
PEOPLE HEATING THEIR HOUSES
DURING THE DAY THAN HAS
HISTORICALLY BEEN THE CASE. IT
IS GOOD IF YOU ARE SELLING
ELECTRICITY. IT'S GOOD FOR A TA
REVENUE. GOOD NEWS THERE FROM
REVENUE SIDE. I DON'T THINK
THERE IS ANYTHING SYSTEMIC IN
TERMS OF CORRECTIONS WE NEED TO
MAKE TO THE FORECASTING
PROCESS. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT
WORKING TO ENGAGE IN UTILITIES
MORE IN THE FALL. AS WE ROUND
OUT THE YEAR, LOOKING FORWARD
AND ACCOUNTED FOR DIFFERENCES .
WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THAT
POINT REALLY SMALL DIFFERENCES
IN THE NEXT FEW REVENUE
STREAMS. NOTABLE BIG DIFFERENCE
IS IN GRANTS. AN ISSUE HERE I
IN A WAY THE CITY BUDGETS FOR
GRANTS. OF THE GRANT IS
RECEIVED, YOU PROBABLY MAY WEL
KNOW IT'LL TAKE YEARS TO SPEND
DOWN. THEY ACCEPT. OFFICIALLY
WE HAVE ADDED ALL THE REVENUES
DEPENDING ON THE NATURE OF THE
GRANT. WITH THE EXPECTATION THA
THE AUTHORITY TO SPEND IT WILL
BE CARRYFORWARD AT THE END OF
THE YEAR. THIS IS REALLY ABOUT
ACCOUNTING ISSUES THEN A
SHORTFALL ISSUE. I DON'T KNOW I
-- EVERY REASON TO THINK THA
REVENUE WILL BE RECEIVED AS
THOSE EXPENDITURES APPEAR . IT
IS NOT HITTING THE CITY'S
BOTTOM LINE, IT'S A TIMING
ISSUE. IF THERE ARE OTHER
QUESTIONS, I CAN MOVE ON. NEXT
OBVIOUS PICK ONE IS --
>> I'M SORRY, ONCE ECONOMIC. SO
WE DON'T LOSE THE THREAD HERE.
DAVID, WERE YOU GOING TO SAY
SOMETHING?
>> I WAS JUST GOING TO SAY,
EXACTLY, MAKE THAT LAST POINT.
WE EXPECT ALL OF THIS TO COME I
AS THE WORK GETS DONE, AS THE
REIMBURSEMENTS RECEIVED, ET
CETERA. IT HAS NOW BEEN SHIFTED
IN TIME.
>> I DO HAVE A QUESTION, THOUGH
ABOUT HOW THIS GETS FACTORED IN
TO THE GENERAL FUND RESERVES
BOTTOM LINE. WHEN WE SEE
SOMETHING THAT IS IN THE RED ,
IT SIGNALS TO ME WE HAVE TO MAK
UP FOR IT. WE CAN COME BACK TO
IT SO YOU CAN FINISH WITH THIS
CHART. BUT I DON'T WANT TO TAKE
AWAY TO BE WE HAVE ANOTHER $18.
MILLION GAP WE ARE TRYING TO
FILL IF WE CAN ANTICIPATE THE
LARGE PART OF THE $36 MILLION
DELAY IS GOING TO BE FILLED AT
SOME POINT. I SEE DEPUTY
DIRECTOR HAD HIS HAND UP. PLEAS
GO AHEAD.
>> THANK YOU CHAIR MOSQUEDA. I
WONDER, IF YOU HAVE THOUGHTS O
-- IF THERE WOULD BE BETTER
WAYS TO INCLUDE GRANTS EITHER
ON THE FORECASTING, THE REVENUE
SIDE, OR THE EXPENDITURE SIDE.
THIS IS AN AREA THAT HAS BEEN
AN ONGOING POINT , I WOULD SAY
LACK OF CLARITY OF HOW TO TRACK
THAT. AS CHAIR MOSQUEDA WAS
DESCRIBING, IT MUDDIES THE TAK
AWAY , OVERALL, FROM THE GENERA
FRONT.
>> YEAH, I WOULD BE HAPPY TO
JUMP IN. IT'S A GREAT QUESTION.
IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER WHE
WE ARE LOOKING AT THIS WE ARE
LOOKING AT THE REVENUE SIDE .
THIS IS NOT A SITUATION WHERE
EXPENDITURES CONTINUE, BUT THE
REVENUE DIDN'T COME IN. BOTH TH
WORK DIDN'T GET DONE, THE
EXPENDITURES WERE NOT MADE . AS
DAVE AND DIRECTOR NOBLE SAID,
THAT SHIPS THE BODY OF WORK AND
TIME. WE WILL SEE BOTH THE
EXPENDITURE AND REVENUE COME
BACK INTO PLAY IN FUTURE YEARS.
THERE IS NO EXPENDITURE. THIS
NEEDS TO HAVE BALANCED . IT
DIDN'T OCCUR IN THE ACTUAL
EXPENDITURES. DEPUTY DIRECTOR,
YOUR POINT, WE ARE LOOKING TO
IMPROVE HOW WE REPORT THE
GRANTS THROUGHOUT THE BUDGETING
PROCESS. LOOK FOR MORE FROM US
ON THAT FRONT IN THE COMING
MONTHS.
>> DEPUTY DIRECTOR, DID YOU HAV
ANOTHER THOUGHT ON THAT?
>> NO. I JUMPED AHEAD BEFORE
JULIE ADDRESSED MY SECOND PAR
OF MY QUESTION. THANK YOU.
>> WE CAN ABSOLUTELY HAVE A LO
OF FAITH IN DIRECTORS
COMMITMENT TO HELPING US ON A
NUMBER OF FRONTS . IMPROVE HOW
THE BUT ITCHING PROCESS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE, NO DOUBT.
I DO THINK THE QUESTION IS STIL
GOOD, AND WE CAN COME BACK TO
IT LATER. WE DON'T HAVE TO SPEN
TOO MUCH TIME ON IT HERE. I AM
CONCERNED ABOUT THE PRESENTATIO
OF INFORMATION IN A CHART LIKE
THIS. THE TAKE AWAY FOR ME, AND
OTHERS, OH MY GOODNESS. WE NEED
TO ADDRESS THIS SHORTFALL AT TH
BOTTOM OF THIS CHART. WE ARE
HEARING CLEARLY THAT THE 36
PLUS MILLION ASSOCIATED WITH
GRANTS IS NOT ACTUALLY A
DEFICIT. WE ARE NOT MISSING TH
MARK BY WHAT WOULD APPEAR TO B
A LONG SHOT. IT IS PROBABLY
JUST A MATTER OF HOW WE PRESENT
INFORMATION . ABOVE THE LINE,
BUT THE LEAD LINE ANALYSIS.
LET'S COME BACK TO THAT. I
THINK IT'S A MATTER OF HOW THE
INFORMATION IS BEING PRESENTED.
>> ON THE FRONT. TOTALLY
APPRECIATE THAT POINT.
>> AT THE HIGH LEVEL, WHEN WE
STARTED THIS, CITY FINANCIAL -
ONLY THE REVENUE. YOU CAN'T
DRAW CONCLUSIONS ABOUT WHERE TH
GENERAL FUND STANDS FROM THIS
PRESENTATION. EVER. I WILL
ALWAYS BE THE CASE. IN TERMS OF
BELOW THE LINE, ABOVE THE LINE.
THERE IS SEPARATE. I WILL COME
BACK TO TALK ABOUT THE OTHER
LINES HERE. THIS GREEN LINE AT
THE VERY BOTTOM, VERY MUCH
INTENTIONALLY -- WHAT I'VE DON
THERE IS TO TAKE THE SUM OF THE
VARIANCES. SOME OF ALL OF THE
COLUMNS. I'VE LEFT OUT -- I
WILL TALK ABOUT THE TRANSFERS.
WHICH I ALSO THINK ARE
ARTIFICIAL, IF YOU WILL. AND
THEN FROM THAT PERSPECTIVE, THE
TOTALS THERE. THOSE TWO
ELEMENTS, SET ASIDE. THE PICTUR
, TO THE GOOD, BY $20 MILLION.
AGAIN, THE OVERALL SCHEME , ONL
ONE AND A HALF PERCENT. THE
DIFFERENCE , OVERALL IS SMALL.
IT IS TO THE GOOD, IF YOU WILL,
IF YOU SET ASIDE WHAT I'VE
DESCRIBED AS TECHNICAL ISSUES.
EXCUSE ME. THE FUND BALANCE
TRANSFER ONE IS COMPARABLE.
THERE WAS SOME WORK THAT WAS
NOT COMPLETED . IT HAD BEEN
COMPLETED. IT WOULD HAVE BEEN
ELIGIBLE FOR SOME REIMBURSEMENT
THROUGH THE FEDERAL SYSTEM.
THAT IS ALSO -- THERE'S LESS
REVENUE. THERE'S ALSO LESS
EXPENSE. I THINK IT IS -- I
TOOK IT OUT AS WELL. I DON'T
THINK IT'S REPRESENTATIVE WHAT'
GOING ON IN TERMS OF OVERALL
PICTURE. IN TERMS OF THE OTHER
REMAINING THREE CATEGORIES
HERE, SERVICE CHARGES AND
REIMBURSEMENTS. TO THE GOOD
HERE. ABOUT 2.7 MILLION . THIS
HAD TO DO WITH WORK THAT WAS
DONE IN DEPARTMENTS. THEY
EARNED REVENUES LATE IN THE
YEAR. THEY HADN'T FULLY
INFORMED THE BUDGET OFFICE, OR
US, ABOUT THAT LIKELINESS.
THAT'S A COMMUNICATION ISSUE WE
NEED TO CONTINUE TO WORK ON.
FEDERATED NATURE. SOMEWHAT
CHALLENGING. THAT'S PART OF WHA
IS GOING ON THERE. PART OF THE
NEXT CATEGORY, WHICH IS SIMILAR
THAT SPD HAD DONE. EARNED
REVENUE PER COMMUNICATION ISSUE
THE OTHERS, THERE WAS SOME
ADDITIONAL INTEREST EARNINGS.
GOOD NEWS ABOUT INTEREST RATES
THE CITIES FUND BALANCES EARNE
ADDITIONAL REVENUE. THE LAST
ITEM IS, WE CONTINUE INTO THE
THIRD AND FOURTH QUARTER TO GET
SOME LATE PAYMENTS FROM THE
PREVIOUS YEAR FOR THE PAYROLL
TAX. PER CITY ORDINANCE, THE
ADDITIONAL 1.6 MILLION WAS
DEPOSITED TO THE GENERAL FUND.
AGAIN, OVERALL, IF YOU TAKE OU
THE GRANTS AND FUND BALANCE
TRANSFERS, I THINK THERE'S A
GOOD REASON TO THINK OF THE
OVERALL PICTURE THAT WAY.
GENERAL FUND FINISHED IN TERMS
OF REVENUES, ABOUT $20 MILLION
AHEAD OF OUR LAST FORECAST. A
BIG CHUNK OF THAT FROM CITY
LIGHTS. BUT ALSO, FROM OUR COR
REVENUES OUTPERFORMING FORECAS
JUST SLIGHTLY.
>> THAT IS THE STORY ON THE
GENERAL FUND. I WAS GOING TO
MOVE ON TO THEM ON GENERAL FUND
SOURCES. ACTUALLY, THE NEXT ON
IS A PAYROLL EXPENSE TAX. I
WANTED TO MAKE SURE THERE WERE
NOT OTHER QUESTIONS ON THE
GENERAL.
>> NO ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS FOR
ME. I THINK IT'S A GOOD
REMINDER. THIS IS NOT THE FULL
PICTURE . WE TRY TO REMIND
PEOPLE OF THAT WHEN WE DO THE
PRESENTATION IN THE COMMITTEE
AS WELL. WE HAVE A MEETING WE
ALWAYS MAKE SURE TO SCHEDULE AS
A FOLLOW-UP TO THESE REVENUE
FORECAST DISCUSSIONS. THE
MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC CAN
RECEIVE THE INFORMATION. WE
ALWAYS TRY TO REMIND FOLKS THAT
, AS DIRECTOR NOBLE NOTED, THE
REVENUES ARE ONLY ONE HALF OF
THE PUZZLE. WE ALSO NEED TO KNO
HOW MUCH IS GOING ON WITH THE
SPENDING. THERE IS ADDITIONAL
REVENUE SOURCES. IS THERE
ANYTHING ELSE YOU WOULD LIKE TO
ADD TO THAT AS A CAVEAT BEFORE
GOING INTO A DISCUSSION ABOUT
THE JUMPSTART PAYROLL EXPENSES?
>> NO, I THINK YOU COVERED IT
VERY WELL, COUNCILMEMBER, THANK
YOU.
>> ALL RIGHT, LET'S GO AHEAD
AND MOVE ON TO THE NEXT SLIDE.
>> WE SHALL.
>> THIS SLIDE IS IN THE DECK.
JUST WHAT YOU ARE DESCRIBING.
2021. 2022. FIRST LINE, FIRST
COLUMN, 2021 REVENUES. FINAL
REVENUES THERE TOTALED 293
MILLION. THE TWO SHADES ARE TO
REFLECT A GOOD DEAL OF THE
MONEY OF $45 MILLION OF LIGHTE
SHADE CAME IN AFTER THE END OF
2021. WE WILL TALK IN A MINUTE
ABOUT THE FACT WE DON'T EXPECT
THAT TO HAPPEN AGAIN. I
HIGHLIGHTED THAT POINT. THE
MIDDLE ONE, THE LIGHT BLUE, IS
OUR FORECAST. OUR FORECAST WAS
ALMOST 280 MILLION. IF YOU
RECALL, THAT WAS OUR AUGUST
FORECAST. WHEN WE CAME IN
NOVEMBER, WE WERE UNCOMFORTABL
WITH THAT NUMBER. WE HAD A SENS
IT WAS GOING TO BE LOWER. WE
REALLY DIDN'T HAVE A FIRM BASIS
FOR PREDICTING A DIFFERENT
NUMBER. WE WILL TALK MORE ABOUT
WHAT WERE THE DRIVERS AND WHY
THAT WAS THE CASE. PAINFULLY
RETURNED TO THE RIGHT. ON THE
RIGHT YOU HAVE WHAT THE ACTUAL
REVENUES ARE IN 2022. IF YOU D
THE MATH, FOR 2021 IT'S PRETTY
SIMPLE. A $40 MILLION
DIFFERENCE. RELATIVE TO 2021,
THE FIRST YEAR WE HAVE TAKEN $4
MILLION LESS . RELATIVE TO OUR
FORECAST, THE DIFFERENCE IS
ABOUT 26 1/2 MILLION. ALSO
SIGNIFICANT. WE DON'T EXPECT
THERE TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
PAYMENTS COMING IN. THE REASO
FOR THAT IS TWOFOLD. WE LOOK T
SEE FOR PEOPLE WHO FILED IN
Q3, WHO HAVEN'T FILED BEFORE.
THERE ARE SOME FOLKS WHO HADN'T
THEY DIDN'T PAY. EVEN IF THEY
WERE TO COME AND IT WOULD MAKE
BIG DIFFERENCE. MAYBE THEY
OVERPAID AND DON'T OWE US
ANYTHING. THE OTHER THING WE
LOOK AT IS IF THERE IS ANYONE
WHO PAID IN 2021 WHO HASN'T PAI
IN 2022. THERE ARE A FEW OF
THOSE IN DOLLAR TERMS, NOT
SIGNIFICANT. WHAT I WOULD ALSO
ADD, THOUGH, IS FOR MANY OF TH
REVENUES THE CITY COLLECTS , A
GREAT EXAMPLE, THERE IS ACTUALL
A REGULAR PATTERN OVER THE
COURSE OF ANY GIVEN YEAR OF
PEOPLE REQUESTING REFUNDS. THE
CITY'S AUDIT TEAM DISCOVERING
THEY HAVE UNDERPAID. AND WE WIL
SEE SOME OF THAT WITH THE
JUMPSTART PAYROLL TAXES AS WELL
THE DIFFERENCE HERE IS THAT --
THIS WILL BE ON THE NEXT LIGHT
-- SO RELATIVELY FEW PAIRS. TH
NORMAL PROCESS OF REFUNDS AND
THAT COULD LEAD TO VOLATILITY
THAT WE HAVEN'T SEEN FROM OTHER
REVENUE STREAMS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT . JUST
HIGHLIGHTING THAT POTENTIAL
VOLATILITY. TWO OBVIOUS
QUESTIONS TO ASK HERE. WHY DID
THE REVENUES DECLINE AND WHY DI
WE MISS ON THE FORECAST? NOT
ENTIRELY SEPARATE QUESTIONS BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENT FACTORS I
WORK IN THERE. IN TERMS OF WHY
REVENUES DECLINED , I WILL GET
TO THAT IN A SECOND. THE CHART
ON THE RIGHT IS THE EXPLANATION
TO PROVIDE THE CONTEXT BEFORE I
WALK THROUGH THE CHART.
SIGNIFICANT SHARE OF THE
REVENUES AND PAYROLL TAX COMES
FROM THE TAX SECTOR. IN THAT
SECTOR, SIGNIFICANT SHARE OF
COMPENSATION COMES FROM GRANTS
OF STOCK. SOMEONE WILL SIGN ON
WITH THE COMPANY. THERE WILL B
AN AGREEMENT THERE EVERY YEAR.
THEY WILL RECEIVE A CERTAIN
NUMBER OF SHARES. THE VALUE OF
THOSE SHARES ARE WHAT THEY ARE
WHEN YOU SEE THEM. COUNTS OF
COMPENSATION AND OUR TAX. YOU
CAN SEE IN THE CHART ON THE
RIGHT, IN SOME OF THE MAJOR
PLAYERS IN THAT SECTOR, STOCK
VALUES HAVE BEEN SUFFERING VER
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE PARTS OF THE
CHART THAT AREN'T SHADED, A
BOULDER COLOR, TRAP WHAT
HAPPENED OVER THE COURSE OF
2022. JANUARY TO DECEMBER
ESSENTIALLY POINT YOU CAN SEE
EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THESE LARG
TECH FIRMS WAS IN DECLINE , AND
RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY IN SOME
CASES. MOREOVER, THAT THE CLIEN
CONTINUED INTO THE FOURTH
QUARTER. THIS IS, WE THINK A
SIGNIFICANT EXPLANATION OF WHY
WE ARE SEEING DECLINE IN
REVENUES. THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF
NEWS ABOUT LAYOFFS. THE TRUTH
IS, THEY DIDN'T START UNTIL LAT
IN 2022 , TO THE EXTENT THAT
THEY DID. THERE WEREN'T THAT
MANY PEOPLE. UNDOUBTEDLY, THAT
IS NOT HEALTHY. ACTUALLY, IN
TERMS OF SHORTFALL FORECAST ,
OUR FORECAST ANTICIPATED GROWTH
WE HAVE BEEN SEEING IN THAT
SECTOR FOR A LONG TIME. WE THIN
THIS IS A BIG PIECE OF IT.
AGAIN, THE PROBLEM STOCK VALUES
FROM A FORECASTING PERSPECTIVE
WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT HOW WE
MIGHT INCORPORATE UP-TO-DATE
INFORMATION ON STOCK VALUES INT
OUR FORECAST. AND POTENTIALLY
SOME PREDICTINS OF FUTURE STOCK
VALUES AS WELL. ANOTHER ELEMEN
WE THINK IS GOING ON HERE IS TH
HYBRID WORK FROM HOME SITUATION
IS BECOMING APPARENT IS IS
GOING TO BE A LONGER-TERM NORM
THEN WAS EXPECTED. AS THAT IS
THE CASE, WE THINK COMING TO
TERMS WITH THE LIABILITY IS.
AND THEY DON'T LIVE IN THE CITY
, THE CITY IS NOT IN POSITION T
TAGS THAT SHARE OF THEIR
COMPENSATION. COMPENSATION
EARNED WHEN THEY ARE OUTSIDE
THE CITY. FIRMS ARE STARTING T
REALIZE KEEPING TRACK OF TIME
INSIDE THE CITY AND OUTSIDE THE
CITY AND THE LIKE. THAT MAY BE
ALSO WHAT IS GOING ON HERE. ON
THE WHOLE, WORKFLOW DOESN'T HEL
US. THE EXTENT PEOPLE ARE -- W
KNOW WITH THE PANDEMIC, AND NO
THAT WE REFLECT THE PANDEMIC,
BUT IN GENERAL, THE CITY WAS A
PLACE WHERE PEOPLE CAME TO WORK
DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME
POPULATION WAS LAUDER LARGER
THAN THE NIGHTTIME POPULATION.
TO THE EXTENT OF FOLKS ENDING U
AT HOME, SOME OF THAT WILL BE
LOST TO US. THAT'S WHY WE THINK
REVENUE HAS DECLINED. WE ARE
GOING TO BE UPDATING THE
FORECAST AGAIN IN APRIL. WE WIL
TRY TO INCORPORATE SOME OF THIS
INSIGHT TO THAT FORECAST. IN
TERMS OF OUR SHORT BALL RELATIV
TO THE FORECAST, AND THIS
HIGHLIGHTS SOME OF THE
CHALLENGES OVERALL, IT IS
REALLY IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND
HOW CONCENTRATED THIS REVENUE
STREAM IS. HOW FEW PAIRS THERE
ARE. AS NOTED HERE, TOP 10
PAIRS ACCOUNT FOR 70% OF THE
TOTAL REVENUE, RIGHT? OUR
REVENUES ARE DEPENDENT ON THEI
BUSINESS SUCCESS IN ANY GIVEN
YEAR. AS THEY COLLECTED. MANY
OF THEM ARE IN THE SAME SECTOR.
THEY MOVE TOGETHER TO A DEGREE.
THAT IS GOING TO BE A
CHALLENGE, IN TERMS OF
FORECASTING. IN FACT, IF WE LOO
AT A, THE EXPLANATION UNTO
THEMSELVES. THEY ACCOUNT FOR
ALMOST ALL OF THE DECLINE,
RELATIVE TO 2021. THAT IS JUST
THE REALITY ABOUT THE SOURCE.
THAT IS WHAT HAS HAPPENED HERE.
WHY WE ARE STRUGGLING ON THE
FORECAST SIDE. WHY WE ARE
INVESTING SO MUCH TIME TO
ESTABLISH AND GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON THIS DATA. I THINK
IT'S ONE OF THESE THINGS , ONE
OF THE REASONS WE ARE GOOD AT
FORECASTING SOME OF THE OTHER
REVENUES, WE HAVE LITERALLY
DECADES OF HISTORY ON DATA. WE
HAVE ONLY TWO YEARS HERE. TWO
PRETTY STRANGE VOLATILE YEARS.
THAT'S JUST GOING TO BE A
CHALLENGE FOR ANOTHER 10 YEARS,
IF YOU WILL, WHILE WE COLLECT
DATA. THAT ALL SAID, VERY
SIGNIFICANT REVENUE . GREAT
VALUE OF INCREASING THE
RESOURCES THAT ARE AVAILABLE TO
THE CITY. AND THE VOLATILITY IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE
MANAGED. THE GOOD NEWS IS, IT'
A VERY SIGNIFICANT REVENUE
STREAM . THE ORIGINAL FORECAST
CURRENT CONDITIONS, MAKING
THESE CHALLENGES. THAT IS WHAT
WE HAVE ON JUMPSTART. I WANT
BE HAPPY TO TAKE QUESTIONS ABOU
THAT.
>> THANKS FOR THE SUMMARY HERE.
ANY ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS,
PLEASE GO AHEAD VICE CHAIR.
>> YOU GAVE SOME OF THE REASONS
WHY THERE MIGHT BE SOME PEOPLE
WORKING, AND THEY ARE
CALCULATING. YOU HAVE A
DIFFERENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
YEAR IN TERMS OF THE NUMBER OF
PEOPLE VERSUS THE RATE OF PAY,
LIKE IS THERE A FLUCTUATION?
YOU CAN SHARE WITH US AROUND -
THERE WERE 1000 EMPLOYEES PAID
FOR, BUT THE SELLER WAS HIRING
WHEN YOU'RE. THERE ARE FEWER
EMPLOYEES PAY FOR, BUT THE
SELLER IS DIPPED. WHAT THE
TOGGLES ARE?
>> YOU HIT ON ONE OF THE REASON
WE WANT TO GET HOLD OF THE DATA
FROM ESP. ON THE MORE AGGREGAT
LEVEL TWO EMPLOYEES THAT ARE
WORKING IN THESE SECTORS. IT
IS LESS PRECISE. WE ARE ALSO,
CREATIVELY, AND PARTLY, USING
SOME AGGREGATED CELL PHONE DATA
TO TRACK THE NUMBER IN REAL
TIME. THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE ,
LEVEL OF ACTIVITY. THESE
OPERATIONS WERE CENTERED, IF YO
WILL. AS AN EXAMPLE. WE WERE
TRYING TO KEEP TRACK IN REAL
TIME WITH THE DAYTIME ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIKE, AND WHAT THE NUMBER
OF EMPLOYEES ARE THAT ARE
COMING AND GOING. DO YOU WANT
TO SAY MORE?
>> YEAH. FROM WHEN THEY ARE
FILING THE PAYROLL EXPENSE ,
THEY DON'T HAVE TO PROVIDE
INFORMATION REGARDING THE
NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES, OR PULL
OUT THE DISTINCTION YOU WERE
ASKING ABOUT. THE WAYS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT IS THE DATA
FOR ACCESS. TO RECORD DATA. WE
HAVE SEEN SOME CHANGE BETWEEN
2021 AND 2022 IN TERMS OF HOW
MANY EMPLOYEES . THERE HAS BEEN
AN INCREASE IN SOME OF THE MAJO
TECH. MAJOR TAX PAYERS. THAT
HAS BEEN A MITIGATING FACTOR.
THAT OFFSET SOME INSTANCES .
>> THAT WILL BE ANOTHER
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR. GIVEN THE
DATE WE BELIEVE THE STOCK
PRICES ARE THE MAIN DRIVE. TO
SOME EXTENT, IT WAS RETURNED TO
THE OFFICE. IT DOES NOT . IN
SEVERAL CASES THERE ARE
COMPANIES WITH OFFICES LOCATED
OUTSIDE THE CITY OF SEATTLE.
AND THEN RETURN TO THE OFFICE.
THE RESIDE IN SEATTLE. BUT
RETURNING TO THE OFFICE THEY
WOULD NOT BE SUBJECT TO IT.
>> ANY ADDITIONAL FOLLOW-UP
QUESTION? LOOKING AT THIS CHAR
HERE, THE LINE THAT IS DARKER
AND MORE BOLD, THAT IS
PROJECTIONS FOR THE END OF THIS
FIRST QUARTER OF 2023.
>> THOSE THROUGH 2022, THE
FINAL POINT. THE LAST QUARTER
OF THE PREVIOUS YEAR. IT DOESN'
SHOW ANYTHING SINCE THEN.
>> IT IS ENDING AT THAT SECOND
TO LAST MARKER, AND THIS IS
ACTUALS.
>> THAT IS CORRECT.
>> OKAY. ALL RIGT. I WANT TO
UNDERSCORE A POINT THAT I WAS
GETTING OUT EARLIER, WHICH I
THINK IT'S THE BEGINNING OF A
CONVERSATION. I WANT TO MAKE
SURE WE JUST STATE, FOR THE
GENERAL PUBLIC AS WELL, THE
IMPORTANCE OF THE WORK THAT IS
TO COME. WE ARE NOT AT THE END
OF THE PRESENTATION YET. GIVEN
THE SORT OF DRAMATIC NATURE OF
THE CHART IN FRONT OF US, MY
OFFICE , WE WILL BE WORKING
CLOSELY WITH THE MAYOR'S OFFICE
CITY BUDGET OFFICE AND CENTRAL
STAFF TO ENSURE WE HAD A PLAN T
FULLY ADDRESS THE SCOPE OF THE
ISSUE WE ARE SEEING HERE. OVER
THE COURSE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKS, WE WOULD BE WORKING
CLOSELY WITH THE BUDGET OFFICE,
AND ALSO , OF COURSE, IN
CONSULTATION WITH THE OFFICE OF
ECONOMIC REVENUE FORECAST AS
NECESSARY . MAKING SURE WE HAVE
THE FULL DATA IN FRONT OF US.
THE BUDGETARY IMPLICATIONS OF
WHAT WE ARE DOING RIGHT NOW WIL
CONTINUE TO BE DISCUSSED BETWEE
THE EXECUTIVE AND LEGISLATIVE
BRANCH. AS WE GET THE OVERALL
REVENUE PICTURED, AS I MENTIONE
BEFORE. WE WILL BE ABLE TO
COMBINE ALL OF THIS INFORMATIO
TO HAVE A FULLER EXPLANATION O
HOW WE CAN ADAPT OUR EXPECTE
EXPENDITURES , AND THE POTENTIA
IMPACT ON THE UPCOMING
EXPENDITURES ON THE UPCOMING
YEAR. NEXT YEAR AS WELL. MORE
WORK TO COME. OBVIOUSLY I
WANTED TO FLAG AT THIS JUNCTURE
THERE IS GOING TO BE MUCH MORE
CONVERSATION TO HAVE WITH THE
MAYOR'S OFFICE. IN THE SEATTLE
CITY COUNCIL. I LOOK FORWARD T
THOSE DISCUSSIONS. WITH YOU ALL
>> WITHOUT I AM GOING TO MOVE
ON. KEEP US ON SCHEDULE. I'M
GOING TO TALK ABOUT SOME OTHER
DEDICATED REVENUE STREAMS. THE
FIRST ELEMENT HERE, GOING TO
COME BACK TO THAT ONE. REAL
QUICK, EMISSION TAX. SLIGHT
OVER PERFORMANCE RELATIVE TO
FORECAST. SUITE AND BEVERAGE
SLIGHTLY BELOW. THE DIFFERENCE
HERE IS SMALL . SHORT-TERM
RENTAL TAX. AGAIN. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE. THE DIFFERENCE IS QUITE
SMALL. REALLY TIGHT ON
FORECASTS THERE. WITH RESPECT
TO THIS -- YOU WILL RECALL WE
BROUGHT THE FORECAST DOWN TO 11
MILLION. WE FORECASTED IN AN
EXCESS OF 105 MILLION. YET
REVENUE FELL BY ALMOST 4
MILLION SHORT OF THAT. THE
DRIVER HERE IS INCREASING
INTEREST RATES , AND THE RAPID
IMPACT ON BOTH RESIDENTIAL AND
COMMERCIAL MARKETS. IT DEPENDS
ON THE VALUE OF PROPERTY SOLD
AND NUMBER OF TRANSACTIONS. TH
NEXT SLIDE IS GOING TO HIGHLIGH
A LITTLE BIT OF HISTORY HERE.
I'M GOING TO GIVE YOU
ANIMATIONS. THIS FIRST-LINE ,
WHAT WE THINK WAS A TYPICAL
YEAR. 2018. PRE-PANDEMIC. A
SEASONALITY TO THE HOME SALES
AND COMMERCIAL TRANSACTIONS.
PARTICULARLY RESIDENTIAL
TRANSACTIONS IN THE SUMMER.
2021 WAS AN AMAZING
PERFORMANCE. FINISH NORTH OF 9
MILLION. YOU SEE THE SAME
SEASONAL PATTERN. INCREDIBLE
GROWTH OVER THE COURSE OF THE
YEAR. SECOND YEAR OF THE
PANDEMIC, VERY LOW INTEREST
RATES. LOCALLY QUITE STRONG.
REMARKABLE PERFORMANCE. THIS I
WHAT WE SAW IN 2022.
INTERESTINGLY, THE FIRST PART O
THE YEAR, WE WERE OUTPERFORMING
2021. OUR FORECAST WAS GOING T
SEE 2021. YOU SEE RIGHT ABOUT
JUNE OR JULY, THINGS CHANGED.
THEY CHANGED DRAMATICALLY.
REVENUE STREAM CONTINUED TO DRO
OFF. AGAIN WE ARE SEEING THIS I
THE COMMERCIAL AND RESIDENTIAL
SIDE. WE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST.
WE HAD INFORMATION THROUGH
SEPTEMBER WHEN WE UPDATED THE
FORECAST. SOMEWHAT SOBERING
NEWS IS THE LAST PIECE. WHAT WE
ARE SEEING FOR THE FIRST FEW
MONTHS OF 2023. CONTINUED LOW
PERFORMANCE. ALMOST HISTORICALL
LOW. THE ONLY YEAR WE CAN FIND
COMPARABLE IS 2008. THE HEIGHT
OF THE GREAT RECESSION. WE AR
BARELY OUTPERFORMING THAT YOUR
FOR THE FIRST TWO MONTHS. I
DON'T WANT TO BE AN ALARMIST.
THIS IS THE PATTERN OF DATA
THAT IS OUT THERE. I JUST WANTE
YOU TO SEE AND UNDERSTAND WHAT
HAPPENED, AND WHAT WE HEAR MAY
BE HAPPENING. ALL THE OTHER
FOLKS AT THE STATE AND COUNTY
LEVEL ARE SEEING SIMILAR THINGS
THAT IS THE HIGH-LEVEL STORY .
I THOUGHT THERE WAS A QUESTION.
>> OKAY, THANK YOU. FORECAST
COUNCILMEMBER SWIFT ?
>> I JUST HAVE A QUESTION ABOUT
THE CHART. END OF 2022, THE
REVENUE WAS AROUND 6 MILLION. A
I READING THAT CORRECTLY?
>> YEAH. THREE-MONTH AVERAGES.
THE MONTHLY TOTAL TO SMOOTH IT
OUT A BIT. 5.2.
>> JANUARY 2023. 2 MILLION?
ONE MONTH LATER?
>> YES. YEAH. SOME OF THIS HA
TO DO WITH THE TIMING OF
TRANSACTIONS OF WHEN THEY CLOSE
THERE'S OFTEN A YEAR-END RUSH,
IF YOU WILL. FOR VARIETY OF
REASONS. USUALLY TAX PLANNING.
>> THE BIG DROP, IS THAT TYPICA
FROM JANUARY TO DECEMBER?
>> YEAH. AND OF 2021 AND
BEGINNING OF 2022. YOU SEE A
COMPARABLE DROP. THE LAST POIN
ON THE GREENLINE. FIRST ONE ON
THE BLUE LINE. THERE IS OFTEN A
YEAR-END RUSH.
>> OKAY.
>> DIRECTOR NOBLE, IS THIS IN
DOLLARS FOR THE TIME PERIOD ,
NOT ADJUSTED? ARE THE 08
DOLLARS AND 08 DOLLARS. OR IS
THERE ANY ADJUSTMENT THERE?
>> NO ADJUSTMENT. IT IS IN FACT
WORSE THAN IT APPEARS. IN REAL
TERMS.
>> THIS WOULD BE AN INTERESTING
CHART TO SEE FOR 2022 WHEN THE
INTEREST RATES CHANGED. OR AT
LEAST NOTING WHEN THE INTEREST
RATES CHANGED.
>> THIS IS A MOVING AVERAGE.
IT'S MOVES THINGS OUT A BIT.
ONE OF THE THINGS I DESCRIBED W
ARE TRYING TO FOCUS ON OUR
ATTENTION ON FOR THE MODELING I
UNDERSTANDING HOW THOSE
INTERACTANTS ARE CHANGING. THI
IS A STRANGE ENVIRONMENT. VERY
PURPOSELY DRIVING UP INTEREST
RATES. IN THE SHORT-TERM,
TRYING TO BRING THEM DOWN
QUICKLY AFTERWARD. NONETHELESS,
THAT'S THE KIND OF CORRELATION
WE ARE LOOKING FOR AND AT.
>> GREAT. DO YOU THINK YOU WILL
BE ABLE TO SHARE BACK AROUND
WITH US?
>> WE CAN PUT SOMETHING TOGETHE
AND SHARE SOME ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
>> OKAY. OBVIOUSLY YOU WITH
PRESENT THAT TO THE PUBLIC AS
WELL, SO WE CAN POST THAT ON TH
WEBSITE. WHAT'S THAT?
>> WE WILL DO THAT AS WELL.
>> GREAT. ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS?
COMMENTS? YOU SAID YOU DIDN'T
WANT TO BE THE BEARER OF BAD
NEWS. AND YET IT CONTINUES.
>> LIKE I SAID, PAYROLL IS TH
CHALLENGE. COVERING THE LAST
FEW. THESE ARE TRANSPORTATION
SPECIFIC. DEDICATED STREAMS.
TRANSPORTATION DISTRICT AS A
SHARE OF SALES TAX. IT HAS A
VEHICLE LICENSE FEE. BOTH
MARGINALLY OUTPERFORMED
FORECAST. COMMERCIAL PARKING
TAX. AGAIN MARGINALLY
OUTPERFORMED. THE SS TPI IS TH
SAME SCHOOL -- I MESSED IT UP.
RED LIGHT AND SPEED ZONE
CAMERAS AROUND THE SCHOOLS.
UNDERPERFORMANCE THERE. I DON'T
KNOW IF DAVID GOT A CHANCE TO
COLLECT ANY ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION. WE HAD FINAL
NUMBERS AS OF LAST FRIDAY.
>> YEAH, FOR SURE. ESSENTIALLY
THERE'S THREE THINGS GOING ON
WITH THE SCHOOLS ON CAMERA
REVENUES. I BELIEVE SCHOOL
SAFETY TRANSPORTATION
IMPROVEMENT . I'M NOT SURE WHA
THE P IS. ANYWAY, THE FIRST
ISSUE , CLEARLY THE VOLUME WAS
LESS THAN PROJECTED FROM THE
EXISTING CAMERAS. THERE'S A
CONSTANT EFFORT OF TRYING TO
FIGURE OUT, WITH THIS REVENUE
STREAM, HOW QUICKLY PEOPLE
FIGURE OUT WHERE THE RED LIGHT
CAMERAS ARE , WHERE THE SCHOOL
ZONE CAMERAS ARE, AND DO THEY
CHANGE THEIR BEHAVIOR. WE HAVE
BEEN WATCHING THE DATA OVER THE
YEARS. TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HO
THAT DECLINES ARE MOVES. DOES A
FLAMEOUT AT ONE POINT? WE GOT
THAT A BIT WRONG . PARTICULARLY
COMING OUT OF THE PANDEMIC WITH
TRAFFIC CHANGES IN THINGS. IT
HAS BEEN A BIT OF A CHALLENGE.
IN ADDITION THERE WERE 16
CAMERAS IMPLEMENTED IN THE FAL
OF 2022. TRYING TO PREDICT HOW
MANY CITATIONS WOULD BE
GENERATED, IN EACH OF THOSE
LOCATIONS. IT'S ALSO A CHALLENG
BECAUSE IT'S HARD TO UNDERSTAND
WHAT THE TRAFFIC FLOWS ARE
GIVEN WE ARE NOT IN THE
TRANSPORTATION DEPARTMENT. WE
DON'T REALLY HAVE ALL THE DATA
TO MAKE AN ESTIMATE. WE WERE OF
A BIT THERE. THERE IS ALWAYS A
POSSIBILITY OF PAYMENT
COMPLIANCE BEING SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT . WE ARE STILL WAITIN
ON DATA TO FIND OUT WHETHER I
CAN DEDUCE WHETHER THAT'S THE
CASE ABOUT THE NUMBER OF PEOPL
PAYING WHEN THEY DO GET A
CITATION. WITH THE COURTS NOW,
IMPLEMENTING COLLECTIONS, WE
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN 2023.
FOR 2022, THAT WAS STILL NOT
THE CASE. AND THEN THE LAST
THING WAS, AN UNFORTUNATE
STAFFING SITUATION. WHERE THE
OFFICERS, EACH OF THESE CAMERA
DRIVEN CITATIONS HAVE TO BE
REVIEWED BY A POLICE OFFICER.
WITH STAFFING ISSUES AND OTHER
DEMANDS ON THEIR TIME, THEY WER
NOT ABLE TO REVIEW MANY, IN TH
SEPTEMBER TIMEFRAME. WE MISSED
THE DEADLINES ON THOSE. THERE I
A DROP IN THE REVENUES FROM
THAT AS WELL.
>> PERHAPS THIS IS A QUESTION W
HAVE FOR SENIOR DEPUTY MAYOR,
WONDERED IF YOU HAD ANYTHING
ELSE TO ADD?
>> I WAS WONDERING IF , DAVID,
WE COULD GET THE NUMBERS , AT
SOME POINT, FOR HOW MANY TICKET
WE ARE HAVING THAT ARE EXPIRIN
OUT BEFORE THEY ARE ABLE TO GET
REVIEWED BY OFFICERS . THAT
WOULD GIVE US A LITTLE
INDICATION . IS OUT 100 TICKE
PROBLEM? OR A THOUSAND TICKET
PROBLEM? THE RAW NUMBERS OF
WHAT THEY ARE HAVING TO THROW
OUT.
>> SURE. THE PROBLEM HAS BEEN
SOLVED. THEY REALIZED IT. THEY
FIXED IT. I THINK THE MAGNITUDE
IS IN THE THOUSANDS. WE CAN
WORK ON GETTING THOSE NUMBERS
FOR YOU POINT
>> IT WOULD ALSO BE HELPFUL TO
KNOW, ON THE TICKETS, ON THE
VOLUME , THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
PEOPLE GETTING THE VIOLATIONS A
THE BEGINNING OF THE CAMERA
GOING IN VERSUS THE CAMERAS GO
IN FOR A FEW MONTH INTERVAL.
WHEN THE CAMERAS ARE NEW , ARE
THERE 1000 VIOLATIONS? AFTER
IT'S BEEN ON FOR THREE MONTHS,
PEOPLE HAVE GOTTEN LESS TICKET
AND THE VOLUME IS HALF. THAT
INFORMATION WOULD BE HELPFUL.
ALSO BALANCING OUT WHETHER OR
NOT THERE IS VALUE . IF THE
CAMERA SUCCESSFULLY SLOWED
SPEEDS IN SOME AREAS.
>> THE TIMING IS NOT THAT QUICK
AFTER INSULATON, THEY USUALLY
GO IN THE FALL, AND THE PEAK
NUMBERS ARE IN THE FIRST YEAR.
AFTER THAT IT STARTS TO DECLINE
IT IS NOT LIKE A DRAMATIC DROP
OFF. THE GRADUAL DECLINE. WHAT
BELIEVE WE HAVE SEEN, OVER TIME
IT SORT OF EVENS OUT. IT LEVELS
OUT. MOVING THE CAMERAS WOULD
BE INTERESTING. THERE'S A COST
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT. AGAIN,
THE MAJORITY WAS NOT THESE
BEING REVIEWED. THE MAJORITY OF
THE PROBLEM WAS TRYING TO
PROTECT THE NUMBER OF CITATIONS
OVERALL.
>> THANK YOU.
>> THAT'S WHAT WE HAVE ON
REVENUES. THE LAST COUPLE OF
SLIDES ARE ON THE ECONOMY.
>> I THINK THAT PROBABLY WEARIN
OUR OTHER HATS, WE WOULD WANT T
TALK ABOUT POLICY AND DIRECTION
FOR THE DEPARTMENT. WE WILL
TALK ABOUT THAT OFF-LINE. I JUS
DIDN'T WANT MEMBERS OF THE
VIEWING PUBLIC TO THINK THIS
PRACTICE OF NOT PRIORITIZING
THIS PROCESS IS GOING TO
CONTINUE, I GUESS. I AM
ASSUMING WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A CONVERSATION ABOUT
POLICY AND PRIORITIZATION IN TH
DEPARTMENT. THAT IS OUTSIDE OF
MY PURVIEW. OF WEARING
DIFFERENT HATS. IT SEEMS LIKE
THERE IS PROBABLY SOME GOOD
CONVERSATIONS TO HAVE AS WELL.
HOW WE PRIORITIZE THE STUFF WE
HAVE WITHIN OUR CITY. PERHAPS
YOU HAVE AN UPDATE ON THAT.
>> NOT RELATED TO THAT POINT I
JUST WANTED TO, BEFORE CLOSING
OUT ON THE REVENUE PORTION, TAL
ABOUT WHERE WE GO FROM HERE WHE
WE CONSIDER FROM THE BUDGETS
PERSPECTIVE IF NOW IS A GOOD
TIME FOR THAT POINT
>> THAT SOUNDS GREAT.
>> AS WE HAVE SAID, FOR MYSELF,
DIRECTOR NOBLE, IT IS
IMPORTANT WE REMEMBER THIS IS
ONE PIECE OVER THE WHOLE
PICTURE. THERE'S THREE BITS OF
INFORMATION I WOULD NEED IN THE
BUDGET OFFICE. THE DECISION
MAKERS FOR THE CITY WOULD NEED
TO UNDERSTAND BEFORE WE CAN
FIGURE OUT A PATH FORWARD. WHAT
DOES THIS MEAN FOR PAYROLL
EXPENSE TAX THIS IS ONE .2022
ACTUALS IS ONE. THE SECOND ONE
IS HOW DID 2022 AND IN SPENDING
HOW DID WE DO SPINNING AGAINST
THE BUDGET WE HAD. HOW MUCH IS
LEFT UNSPENT, IF YOU WILL. WHAT
IS THIS ULTIMATE UPDATED
FORECAST IN APRIL GOING TO TELL
US , WHEN WE FIND OUT ON APRIL
10th. HOW FAR DOWN ARE THESE
GOING TO GO? ARE THEY GOING TO
MAINTAIN CURRENT CARD
TRAJECTORY. WE DON'T HAVE THOSE
PIECES OF INFORMATION YET. ONCE
WE SEE ALL OF THOSE DATA POINTS
THAT'S WHEN WE CAN HAVE THE
COLLABORATIVE DISCUSSION ABOUT
ADJUSTING IN THE FUTURE. WE AR
MONITORING THE SITUATION
CLOSELY. PARTICULARLY WE KNOW
HAVE CASH BALANCES. WE HAVE
NOT SENT DIRECTION , AS A RESUL
OF THIS, FOR EXAMPLE THROUGH
STOP SPENDING. WE ARE, HOWEVER
CONTINUING TO MONITOR. WE ARE
GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE
CONSIDERABLE UPDATES INTO 2024
AROUND PROJECTS AND TIMING. JUS
WHEN THEY HIT. WHETHER THIS IS
SOMETHING A PROJECT WAS GOING
TO ANTICIPATE TO START IN 2024,
PERHAPS IT NEEDS TO GO TO 2025
OR FURTHER OUT. WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE ADDITIONAL TIME TO FIGURE
OUT HOW TO DIGEST AND MOVE
FORWARD WITH THIS INFORMATION I
THE COMING MONTHS.
>> GREAT. I APPRECIATE THE
PARTNERSHIP WITH YOU. CLOSE
PARTNERSHIP WITH CENTRAL STAFF.
THANKS SO MUCH. OKAY. DIRECTOR
NOBLE. I WILL HAND IT BACK TO
YOU.
>> LAST PORTION OF THIS
PRESENTATION, IN SOME WAYS, IT
IS CATCHING UP ON WHERE THE
ECONOMY HAS BEEN. I THINK IT'S
A USEFUL WAY TO WRAP UP. I'M
GOING TO TURN THIS OVER . WE
HAVE ONE SLIDE TO QUICKLY TALK
ABOUT THE U.S. ECONOMY, AND ONE
FOR THE LOCAL ECONOMY AS WELL.
AS YOU WILL SEE, OVERALL, THE
RESULTS HAVE TRACKED VERY WELL
TO OUR FORECAST.
>> FIRST, THE NATIONAL ECONOMY
THIS SLIDE SUMMARIZES WHAT THE
FORECAST WAS AT THE TIME WHEN
WE WERE WORKING ON OUR LAST
ECONOMIC FORECAST AND REVENUE
FORECAST BACK IN OCTOBER. EARLY
NOVEMBER. 2022. THE CHART ON
THE RIGHT COMPARES DIMENSIONAL
FORECAST THAT SERVES AS A MAIN
PUT FOR OUR FORECAST. THE
ACTUAL PERFORMANCE OF THE U.S.
ECONOMY. THE MAIN TAKE AWAY HER
IS THE ECONOMY PERFORMED
SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN EXPECTED.
THEY WERE -- IN TERMS OF
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS.
THEY GREW SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE EXPECTING IN
OCTOBER. WHEN THEY WERE WORKING
ON THE FORECAST THEY HAD
INFORMATION UP TO THE AUGUST
DATA. THE LAST FOUR ARE IN
LINE. WHAT THEY WERE EXPECTING.
SLIGHTLY BETTER. THE LABOR
MARKET OUTPERFORMED SLIGHTLY
THEIR EXPECTATIONS. SPENDING
WAS CONTINUING TO OUTPERFORM
EXPECTATION AND RESILIENCE. AS
YOU CAN SEE THERE, IT WAS VERY
CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL 2022
INFLATION. IN 2023, THE ECONOM
IS SHOWING MUCH MORE STRENGTH
THAN WE EXPECTED. BACK IN
OCTOBER, 2022, I JUST WAS
EXPECTING THE ECONOMY TO ENTER
RECESSION IN THE FIRST QUARTER.
WHAT WE SEE HER WITH THE MILD
RECESSION. OF FIRST QUARTER.
NOW REVISING THE FORECAST UP.
WE JUST RECEIVED THEIR MARCH
FORECAST YESTERDAY. THE MAIN
TAKE AWAY IS THERE IS AN
OUTLOOK THAT WOULD BE DRIVING
THE SALES TAX FORECAST. B AND
FORECAST. THAT IS NOT
NECESSARILY THE CASE FOR THE
OUTLOOK FOR 2023. SLIGHTLY
BETTER THAN THE OUTLOOK FOR
2024. IT WOULD BE MUCH WORSE.
THEY WOULD BE ANTICIPATING BAC
IN OCTOBER. MOVING ON TO THE
REGIONAL ECONOMY. SIMILAR SORT
OF THE STORY VERSUS THE ACTUAL
LAST YEAR. BACK IN OCTOBER WHE
WE WERE WORKING ON THE REGIONA
FORECAST, IN GENERAL, IT WENT
TO THE THIRD QUARTER FOR
ECONOMIC INDICATORS. FIRST TWO
QUARTERS OF REVENUE FOR TAXABL
SALES. THAT MEANS WE HAD DATA
THROUGH AUGUST. GIVEN THAT A LO
OF SALES TAX OCCURS DURING THE
HOLIDAY SEASON, THOSE TAXABLE
SALES THAT ARE USED AND BASED
-- 45% OF THE OVERALL TAX
REVENUE. 2022. WE STILL WERE
ABLE TO FORECAST QUITE CLOSE.
THE ACTUAL OUTCOMES. PRESENTED
BEFORE SALES TAX OUTPERFORMED
THE SALES TAX SLIGHTLY. FOR TH
ECONOMIC INDICATORS, THE LOCAL
ECONOMY , THOSE LAYOFFS ARE NOT
YET SHOWING UP IN THE OVERALL
EMPLOYMENT DATA. THE INFLATION
HAS COME DOWN SLIGHTLY SINCE
THE PEAK LAST SUMMER. BUT IT
IS STILL QUITE HIGH. OUR
FORECAST FROM OCTOBER WAS
PRETTY MUCH WHAT WE SAW BY THE
END OF 2022. REGIONAL INFLATIO
IS OUT . OUTPACING THE NATIONAL
RATE. THERE ARE STILL CONCERNS
THAT THE LAST TWO MONTHS HAVE
-- THE DISINFLATION HAS BEEN -
THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE
INFLATION WILL HAVE TO BE
REVISED. OVERALL, STARTING
POSITION IN 2023 IS PRETTY
GOOD. THERE IS SOME MILD
OPTIMISM FOR SALES TAX . MUCH
MORE COMPLICATED . REASONS TO
BE CONCERNED. WE WILL COME WIT
UPDATES AND MORE DETAILED UPDAT
NEXT MONTH. AT THIS POINT THIS
CONCLUDES OUR PRESENTATION. WE
ARE HAPPY TO TAKE ANY QUESTIONS
>> OKAY. THANK YOU SO MUCH. ARE
THERE ANY ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS?
CAN I ASK YOU TO SUMMARIZE WHA
THE LAST POINT WAS ON THE
INFLATION. DID YOU SAY THAT
INFLATION LOOKS LIKE IT IS
TRENDING DOWNWARD?
>> IT HAS STARTED TO SHIFT
DOWNWARD, WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY A
GOOD SIGN. THE EMERGING CONCER
IS THAT IT IS NOT SHIFTING
DOWNWARD AS SOME HAD PREDICTED
AND HOPED. AS WE UPDATE THE
FORECAST, FOR APRIL, THE
EMPLOYMENT AND SPINACH IS LOOK
GOOD. IF THERE'S ANY SORT OF
CONCERN IT'S ON THE INFLATIONAR
SIDE. IN PART THAT WILL KEEP
INTEREST RATES HIGH. THAT WILL
HAVE EFFECTS. PARTICULARLY AS
WE HAVE SEEN IN THE REAL ESTATE
SPACE, BUT NOT ONLY THAT. MORE
TO COME. WE ARE DIGGING IN AS
WE SPEAK.
>> GREAT. ANY ADDITIONAL
COMMENTS OR QUESTIONS FROM YOU?
>> NO. THIS WAS VERY
INFORMATIVE, THANK YOU. I HAVE
BEEN TAKING NOTES ON THE LARGE
GAPS. I AM SURE WE WILL DISCUS
THAT A LITTLE MORE NEXT MONTH ,
AS WE GET TO THE PROJECTIONS ,
BUT THANK YOU . REALLY VALUABLE
INFORMATION TO SEE HOW THE
NOVEMBER PROJECTIONS ACTUALLY
CLOSED OUT FOR US IN 2022.
>> EXCELLENT, THANK YOU VERY
MUCH. FORECAST COUNCIL MEMBERS
, ANYTHING ELSE FROM YOU?
>> I JUST APPRECIATE THE
PARTNERSHIP WE HAVE WITH THE
REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL. WE
HAVE A LOT OF CONTINUING
DISCUSSIONS . GREAT LICENSE AND
TAX ADMINISTRATION TEAM WE HAV
THAT WORKS CLOSELY WITH THEM. W
ARE ALL WAITING . I APPRECIATE
THE COLLABORATION.
>> THANK YOU SO MUCH. GOOD TO
HAVE YOU HERE , TOO, AS WELL.
ANYTHING FROM YOU VICE COUNCIL
MEMBERS WITH?
>> NO, THANK YOU PICS
>> GREAT. THANKS TO ALL OF YOU.
MUCH MORE WORK TO COME AS BOTH
THE FORECAST COUNSEL OFFICE --
EXCUSE ME. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC
AND REVENUE FORECAST HAS
INDICATED, WE, MY OFFICE AND
CENTRAL STAFF LOOK FORWARD TO
PARTICIPATING IN MANY MORE
CONVERSATIONS TO COME AS WE
DIGEST THIS INFORMATION WITH
THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH. I WANT TO
THANK YOU FOR ALL YOUR
PARTICIPATION TODAY. WE HAVE
REACHED THE END OF OUR AGENDA.
BEFORE WE ADJOURN, DIRECTOR
NOBLE IS ANYTHING ELSE WE WOULD
LIKE TO ADD?
>> NO, THANK YOU FOR THE
OPPORTUNITY. WE LOOK FORWARD T
SEEING YOU NEXT MONTH.
>> OKAY, SOUNDS GREAT. I WANT T
REMIND EVERYONE OUR NEXT
FORECAST COUNCIL MEETING IS
GOING TO BE ON APRIL 10th AT
9:30 A.M. WE DO HAVE OUR
MEETINGS QUARTERLY. WE HAVE
APRIL, AUGUST AND OCTOBER. AND
THEN WE WILL HAVE SUBSEQUENT
PRESENTATIONS IN SEATTLE CITY
COUNCILS FIND DUNCE AND HOUSIN
COMMUNITY MEETINGS. THE
COMMUNITY CAN CONTINUE TO GET
THE INFORMATION WE HAVE RECEIVE
HERE FROM THE FORECAST COUNCIL.
AT THE FORECAST COUNCIL. THANK
FOR SEATTLE CHANNEL FOR
BROADCASTING THESE. IF THERE AR
NO ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS OR
COMMENTS WE WILL BE ADJOURNED.
THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS. WE ARE
ADJOURNED. SEE YOU ON APRIL
10th. THANKS, EVERYONE.