Last Updated: March 04, 2013

Data and Charts:  Real-time data on infectious disease symptoms tracked by the Seattle Fire Department.

Analytical Reports: Ongoing analysis of surveillance data is presented to the Fire Department management and Medical Director. A comprehensive evaluation of the tracking program, published in December, 2010, and updated in October 2012 is accessible from this link.

SURVEILLANCE PROGRAM: Details on the Situation Found and First Watch Programs.

 CURRENT SUMMARY COMMENTS

3/4/2013 Comments:  The percentage of patients with influenza-like symptoms (ILS)  peaked in mid-February and has dropped fairly consistently since then.  The level of (ILS) is back to "normal" for this time of year, consistent with previous years. This is also consistent with the significant drop in confirmed virus cases from the UW Virology Lab from February 9th through the 16th.

1/28/2013 Comments:  A significant increase in influenza-like symptoms (ILS) has occurred over the past two weeks.  Data and charts (link above) show that the percentage of patients seen with ILS is now comparable to the second wave of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic outbreak. The Coefficient of Determination for a 14-day moving averages (from the data page) are above 0.9 for ILS, fever and fever with other symptoms, and the fever or cough or respiratory.  The raw number of patients with ILS has increased 30% in the past two weeks.  Also, the geographic distribution of patients with ILS indicates that flu-like symptoms are fairly wide spread around the city.  Two maps - generated from the First Watch monitoring and alerting system - for ILS events January 1 through January 27, 2013 show the distribution of Fever and the Cough-Fever-Respiratory combination of symptoms.

1/18/2013 Comments: As widely reported, influenza is prevalent in the region and is reflected in the number and percentage of patients with influenza-like symptoms.  The charts (accessible from the link above) show a substantial increase in symptoms over the past couple of weeks.  The Coefficient of Determination for a 7-day moving average from December 7th to now is 0.8 for fever and fever with other symptoms, and 0.9 for cough, fever, respiratory and other symptoms. 

1/2/2013 Comments: Consistent with previous years, influenza-like symptoms found in the field have significantly increased from mid-December to now.  The significance of the increase is reflected in the Coefficient of Determination:  0.83 for ILS overall, 0.6 for fever and fever with other symptoms, and 0.84 for fever or cough or respiratory.  (A score of 0.7 or more is a significant increase and less than 0.4 is an insignificant change.)

The King County Public Health and UW Virology Lab are now reporting significant increases in influenza-like illnesses and laboratory confirmed influenza viral strains from 12/1/2012 through 12/22/2012.